Milwaukee Bucks at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Kyle KuzmaPoints22
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists7
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds9
Warriors- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints24
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists10
- Draymond GreenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–104
- Q410.1Draymond Green defensive rebound93–104
- Q412.1Damian Lillard misses two point shot93–104
- Q422.1shot clock turnover93–104
- Q422.1Warriors offensive team rebound93–104
- Q423.2Brandin Podziemski misses 28-foot three point step back jumpshot93–104
- Q448.1Buddy Hield defensive rebound93–104
- Q448.1Taurean Prince misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot93–104
- Q41:08Brandin Podziemski makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)93–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:51Gary Payton II makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)MIL 71 – 70 GS · GS 33% → 44% +11GS 33% → 44%+11 pts
- Q341.0Buddy Hield makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotMIL 76 – 73 GS · GS 25% → 36% +11GS 25% → 36%+11 pts
- Q45:40Gary Payton II makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)MIL 88 – 96 GS · GS 76% → 88% +12GS 76% → 88%+12 pts
- Q45:20Taurean Prince makes 25-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 91 – 96 GS · MIL 11% → 23% +12MIL 11% → 23%+12 pts
- Q42:19Brandin Podziemski makes 26-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)MIL 93 – 99 GS · GS 75% → 92% +16GS 75% → 92%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -1.5
- ML MIL -130 / GS +110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -1.5
- MIL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 55.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -119
- GS +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 113.5 – 112.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1578 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +18 | +9 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Missing Stephen Curry −43 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +35 Elo | MIL 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30114.5 | Points scored | 113.417th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.2 | Points allowed | 111.08th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.3 | Margin | +2.510th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 112.316th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 109.88th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.1 | Pace | 100.816th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 16th of 3014–17 | Road vs home | 21–1413th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+9 Elo- Stephen Curry rest−43 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–34 | 35–33 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–23 | 22–23 |
| Underdog | 10–11 | 13–10 |
| Overs–unders | 34–34 | 34–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 1–2 GS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.