New York Knicks at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints29
- Josh HartAssists7
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds12
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints28
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists7
- Stephen CurryRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–97
- Q40.0OG Anunoby makes 29-foot running pullup jump shot (Miles McBride assists)94–97
- Q46.0Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 291–97
- Q46.0Warriors offensive team rebound91–96
- Q46.0Stephen Curry misses free throw 1 of 291–96
- Q46.0Mitchell Robinson enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns91–96
- Q46.0Karl-Anthony Towns personal take foul91–96
- Q49.0Miles McBride makes driving layup91–96
- Q414.1Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 289–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:58OG Anunoby makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshotNY 75 – 77 GS · NY 22% → 33% +11NY 22% → 33%+11 pts
- Q45:01Stephen Curry makes driving layup (Jonathan Kuminga assists)NY 83 – 88 GS · GS 74% → 83% +9GS 74% → 83%+9 pts
- Q44:39Karl-Anthony Towns makes 30-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 86 – 88 GS · NY 16% → 32% +15NY 16% → 32%+15 pts
- Q42:52Mikal Bridges makes 11-foot two point shotNY 88 – 88 GS · NY 29% → 45% +16NY 29% → 45%+16 pts
- Q42:26Moses Moody makes driving layup (Gary Payton II assists)NY 88 – 90 GS · GS 54% → 71% +17GS 54% → 71%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- GS -6.5
- ML NY +200 / GS -240
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -5
- GS 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- GS: Elo 69.7%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- GS -212
- NY +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 111.0 – 117.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1582 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −54 | +65 | NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +145 Elo | GS 69.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 68.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 68.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 113.816th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 111.28th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.4 | Margin | +2.69th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.1 | Offense rating | 112.514th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 109.99th of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.9 | Pace | 100.916th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3021–12 | Road vs home | 20–1312th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–36 | 35–31 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 26–28 | 22–21 |
| Underdog | 3–8 | 13–10 |
| Overs–unders | 36–29 | 34–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 1–2 GS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.