New York Knicks at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints26
- OG AnunobyAssists8
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds9
Kings- Malik MonkPoints21
- DeMar DeRozanAssists5
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game133–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter133–104
- Q420.1MarJon Beauchamp defensive rebound133–104
- Q423.0Mason Jones misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot133–104
- Q433.1Skal Labissiere defensive rebound133–104
- Q436.0Anton Watson misses layup133–104
- Q445.0Isaiah Crawford out of bounds bad pass turnover133–104
- Q454.2MarJon Beauchamp bad pass (Markelle Fultz steals)133–104
- Q41:05Mason Jones makes free throw 2 of 2133–104
- Q41:05Mason Jones makes free throw 1 of 2133–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:30Karl-Anthony Towns makes 27-foot three point jumper (OG Anunoby assists)NY 6 – 5 SAC · NY 48% → 54% +6NY 48% → 54%+6 pts
- Q14:56Josh Hart makes 27-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)NY 18 – 14 SAC · NY 54% → 61% +7NY 54% → 61%+7 pts
- Q14:07Miles McBride makes 28-foot three pointerNY 21 – 14 SAC · NY 61% → 67% +6NY 61% → 67%+6 pts
- Q12:07Zach LaVine makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotNY 25 – 20 SAC · SAC 30% → 37% +6SAC 30% → 37%+6 pts
- Q11:45Miles McBride makes 25-foot three pointer (Mitchell Robinson assists)NY 28 – 20 SAC · NY 63% → 70% +6NY 63% → 70%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- NY -1.5
- ML NY -120 / SAC +100
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -1
- NY 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- NY: Elo 46.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NY -109
- SAC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 112.5 – 111.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −69 | −19 | NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +24 Elo | SAC 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 50.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30116.9 | Points scored | 116.88th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 114.919th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.1 | Margin | +1.912th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.0 | Offense rating | 114.57th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 112.715th of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.9 | Pace | 100.719th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 4th of 3019–12 | Road vs home | 16–1417th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−69 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–35 | 28–35 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 25–27 | 20–26 |
| Underdog | 3–8 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders | 35–28 | 34–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 3–0 SAC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.