Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints23
- DeMar DeRozanAssists7
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds9
Warriors- Draymond GreenPoints23
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists7
- Kevon LooneyRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–130
- Q40.1shot clock turnover104–130
- Q423.0Trayce Jackson-Davis defensive rebound104–130
- Q425.1Markelle Fultz misses 16-foot pullup jump shot104–130
- Q431.1Isaac Jones defensive rebound104–130
- Q434.1Pat Spencer misses driving layup104–130
- Q448.1Gui Santos defensive rebound104–130
- Q451.1Doug McDermott misses 22-foot three point jumper104–130
- Q41:05Isaac Jones defensive goaltending violation104–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:22Zach LaVine makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotSAC 61 – 67 GS · SAC 15% → 21% +6SAC 15% → 21%+6 pts
- Q38:19Stephen Curry makes 27-foot three pointer (Moses Moody assists)SAC 63 – 72 GS · GS 79% → 86% +6GS 79% → 86%+6 pts
- Q38:04Zach LaVine makes 27-foot three point jumper (Keegan Murray assists)SAC 66 – 72 GS · SAC 14% → 21% +6SAC 14% → 21%+6 pts
- Q36:53Moses Moody makes 22-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)SAC 70 – 79 GS · GS 80% → 86% +6GS 80% → 86%+6 pts
- Q35:35Buddy Hield makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotSAC 72 – 82 GS · GS 82% → 88% +6GS 82% → 88%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- GS -7.5
- ML SAC +220 / GS -270
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -7
- GS 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- GS: Elo 75.5%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- GS -234
- SAC +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 113.0 – 120.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −37 | +68 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +196 Elo | GS 75.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 76.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 75.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.6 | Points scored | 113.616th of 30 |
| 19th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 111.38th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.5 | Margin | +2.310th of 30 |
| 7th of 30114.4 | Offense rating | 112.215th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 109.99th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.7 | Pace | 101.015th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 11th of 3017–16 | Road vs home | 19–1312th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+68 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–36 | 34–31 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–26 | 21–21 |
| Underdog | 8–10 | 13–10 |
| Overs–unders | 35–29 | 33–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 4–3 GS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.