Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints34
- Shaedon SharpeAssists8
- Deni AvdijaRebounds16
Warriors- Gary Payton IIPoints26
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists10
- Jimmy Butler IIIRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–130
- Q46.1Anfernee Simons makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot120–130
- Q410.2Jimmy Butler III makes 21-foot jumper117–130
- Q432.1Scoot Henderson out of bounds lost ball turnover117–128
- Q437.0Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 2117–128
- Q437.0Stephen Curry makes free throw 1 of 2117–127
- Q437.0Deni Avdija personal foul117–126
- Q447.1Jabari Walker personal take foul117–126
- Q449.1Anfernee Simons makes free throw 2 of 2117–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:57Quinten Post makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)POR 7 – 3 GS · GS 73% → 78% +5GS 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q19:10Anfernee Simons makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donovan Clingan assists)POR 10 – 5 GS · POR 19% → 24% +5POR 19% → 24%+5 pts
- Q18:55Stephen Curry makes 25-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)POR 10 – 8 GS · GS 76% → 81% +5GS 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q32:11Deni Avdija makes 25-foot three point jumper (Duop Reath assists)POR 88 – 94 GS · POR 8% → 13% +5POR 8% → 13%+5 pts
- Q31:13Buddy Hield makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)POR 90 – 97 GS · GS 82% → 89% +7GS 82% → 89%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- GS -11.5
- ML POR +500 / GS -800
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -6.5
- GS 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.9 pts
- GS: Elo 74.4%, market 84.2%
- Fair odds
- GS -533
- POR +533 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 113.0 – 124.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | POR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +33 | +53 | POR: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +185 Elo | GS 74.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 79.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 79.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 84.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30110.5 | Points scored | 113.316th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 111.29th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.0 | Margin | +2.111th of 30 |
| 24th of 30109.3 | Offense rating | 111.915th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 109.88th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.7 | Pace | 101.015th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3012–22 | Road vs home | 18–1312th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–29 | 34–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 21–20 |
| Underdog | 32–25 | 13–10 |
| Overs–unders | 33–32 | 32–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 0–5 GS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.