New York Knicks at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Mikal BridgesPoints33
- Josh HartAssists9
- Josh HartRebounds11
Trail Blazers- Scoot HendersonPoints30
- Deni AvdijaAssists5
- Deni AvdijaRebounds15
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game114–113
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime114–113
- OT0.0(00:00) [Knicks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)114–113
- OT0.1Mikal Bridges makes 25-foot three pointer (Josh Hart assists)114–113
- OT3.1Miles McBride enters the game for Mitchell Robinson111–113
- OT3.1Kris Murray enters the game for Anfernee Simons111–113
- OT3.1Knicks Full timeout111–113
- OT3.1Deni Avdija makes free throw 1 of 1111–113
- OT3.1Karl-Anthony Towns enters the game for Miles McBride111–112
- OT3.1Josh Hart shooting foul111–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:58Karl-Anthony Towns makes 27-foot three point shot (Mikal Bridges assists)NY 101 – 98 POR · NY 52% → 80% +27NY 52% → 80%+27 pts
- Q43.1Scoot Henderson makes free throw 2 of 2NY 106 – 106 POR · POR 6% → 50% +44POR 6% → 50%+44 pts
- OT3:27Miles McBride makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 109 – 108 POR · NY 38% → 61% +23NY 38% → 61%+23 pts
- OT3.1Deni Avdija makes two point shotNY 111 – 112 POR · POR 6% → 94% +89POR 6% → 94%+89 pts
- OT0.1Mikal Bridges makes 25-foot three pointer (Josh Hart assists)NY 114 – 113 POR · NY 0% → 100% +100NY 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- NY -3.5
- ML NY -175 / POR +150
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -1
- NY 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.7 pts
- NY: Elo 46.7%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- NY -159
- POR +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 116.0 – 112.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1578 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −59 | +40 | NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Deandre Ayton −9 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +23 Elo | POR 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 54.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 110.624th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 114.718th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.5 | Margin | −4.023rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.2 | Offense rating | 109.424th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 113.420th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.0 | Pace | 100.719th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 4th of 3020–12 | Road vs home | 16–1518th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−59 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+40 Elo- Deandre Ayton strained left calf−9 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–35 | 37–29 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 26–27 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 3–8 | 33–25 |
| Overs–unders | 36–28 | 34–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 2–0 POR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.