Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Aaron GordonPoints38
- Russell WestbrookAssists16
- Russell WestbrookRebounds12
Warriors- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints23
- Stephen CurryAssists7
- Jimmy Butler IIIRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–105
- Q48.1Moses Moody makes 22-foot three pointer114–105
- Q413.1Moses Moody offensive rebound114–102
- Q413.1Moses Moody misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot114–102
- Q420.1Peyton Watson makes two point shot (Michael Porter Jr. assists)114–102
- Q426.0Michael Porter Jr. defensive rebound112–102
- Q430.0Stephen Curry misses 30-foot three point step back jumpshot112–102
- Q434.1Russell Westbrook makes 16-foot jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)112–102
- Q456.1Jonathan Kuminga turnover110–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q318.1Vlatko Cancar makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Pickett assists)DEN 89 – 77 GS · DEN 68% → 78% +10DEN 68% → 78%+10 pts
- Q47:53Michael Porter Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)DEN 97 – 86 GS · DEN 75% → 85% +11DEN 75% → 85%+11 pts
- Q46:33Aaron Gordon makes 12-foot step back jumpshot (Michael Porter Jr. assists)DEN 99 – 94 GS · DEN 54% → 65% +11DEN 54% → 65%+11 pts
- Q45:29Vlatko Cancar makes two point shotDEN 101 – 94 GS · DEN 68% → 78% +10DEN 68% → 78%+10 pts
- Q44:10Russell Westbrook makes 26-foot three pointerDEN 106 – 96 GS · DEN 84% → 93% +10DEN 84% → 93%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- GS -12.5
- ML DEN +410 / GS -550
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -9
- GS 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- GS: Elo 80.6%, market 81.2%
- Fair odds
- GS -432
- DEN +432 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 110.0 – 122.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1593 | 1575 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −164 | +65 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +247 Elo | GS 80.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 84.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 83.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 81.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30121.2 | Points scored | 113.617th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 110.98th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.4 | Margin | +2.610th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.1 | Offense rating | 112.415th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 109.89th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.8 | Pace | 100.816th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 5th of 3020–14 | Road vs home | 21–1312th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−164 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–36 | 35–32 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–28 | 22–22 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 13–10 |
| Overs–unders | 39–29 | 34–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 5–0 GS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.