Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Austin ReavesPoints37
- Austin ReavesAssists13
- Austin ReavesRebounds8
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints28
- Russell WestbrookAssists7
- Nikola JokicRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–131
- Q42.1Russell Westbrook makes 1-foot dunk126–131
- Q44.0Shake Milton bad pass (Russell Westbrook steals)126–129
- Q45.1Russell Westbrook enters the game for Jamal Murray126–129
- Q45.1Lakers Full timeout126–129
- Q46.0Jamal Murray makes 24-foot three pointer126–129
- Q426.0Jamal Murray defensive rebound126–126
- Q429.1Austin Reaves misses 15-foot pullup jump shot126–126
- Q448.0Nikola Jokic makes free throw 1 of 1126–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:36Jordan Goodwin makes 22-foot three point jumper (Christian Koloko assists)LAL 122 – 123 DEN · LAL 9% → 31% +22LAL 9% → 31%+22 pts
- Q41:04Austin Reaves makes two point shotLAL 124 – 123 DEN · LAL 30% → 57% +27LAL 30% → 57%+27 pts
- Q452.0Dalton Knecht makes 1-foot dunk (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 126 – 123 DEN · LAL 59% → 84% +25LAL 59% → 84%+25 pts
- Q448.0Nikola Jokic makes driving layup (Aaron Gordon assists)LAL 126 – 125 DEN · DEN 14% → 40% +26DEN 14% → 40%+26 pts
- Q46.0Jamal Murray makes 24-foot three pointerLAL 126 – 129 DEN · DEN 52% → >99% +48DEN 52% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -15.5
- ML LAL +700 / DEN -1200
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -9.5
- DEN 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- DEN: Elo 82.4%, market 88.1%
- Fair odds
- DEN -738
- LAL +738 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 107.0 – 122.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1604 | 1603 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −147 | +46 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +268 Elo | DEN 82.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 84.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 84.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 88.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30112.8 | Points scored | 121.13rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.4 | Points allowed | 116.624th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.4 | Margin | +4.56th of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 118.02nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 113.722nd of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.4 | Pace | 101.77th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 14th of 3015–17 | Road vs home | 22–106th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−147 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–28 | 32–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 20–17 | 23–26 |
| Underdog | 16–11 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders | 30–34 | 37–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 2–8 DEN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.
- Feb 22LAL 123 @ DEN 100Picked DEN 68%Miss
- Nov 23DEN 127 @ LAL 102Picked LAL 60%Miss
- Apr 29LAL 106 @ DEN 108PlayoffsPicked DEN 62%Hit
- Apr 27DEN 108 @ LAL 119PlayoffsPicked DEN 53%Miss
- Apr 25DEN 112 @ LAL 105PlayoffsPicked LAL 51%Miss
- Apr 22LAL 99 @ DEN 101PlayoffsPicked DEN 56%Hit
- Apr 20LAL 103 @ DEN 114PlayoffsPicked DEN 57%Hit
- Mar 2DEN 124 @ LAL 114Picked LAL 56%Miss