Washington Wizards at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Alex SarrPoints34
- Bub CarringtonAssists7
- Justin ChampagnieRebounds13
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints40
- Russell WestbrookAssists11
- Nikola JokicRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–123
- Q40.0Nuggets offensive team rebound126–123
- Q40.0Nikola Jokic misses 69-foot three point jumper126–123
- Q42.1Jordan Poole makes 35-foot three pointer (Kyshawn George assists)126–123
- Q45.1Peyton Watson enters the game for Jamal Murray123–123
- Q45.1Wizards Full timeout123–123
- Q45.1Jamal Murray makes 15-foot step back jumpshot (Nikola Jokic assists)123–123
- Q410.0Nuggets Full timeout123–121
- Q410.0Kyshawn George makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)123–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:31Michael Porter Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)WSH 118 – 119 DEN · DEN 34% → 68% +34DEN 34% → 68%+34 pts
- Q430.0Russell Westbrook makes 2-foot layup (Jamal Murray assists)WSH 120 – 121 DEN · DEN 34% → 73% +39DEN 34% → 73%+39 pts
- Q410.0Kyshawn George makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)WSH 123 – 121 DEN · WSH 17% → 96% +78WSH 17% → 96%+78 pts
- Q45.1Jamal Murray makes 15-foot step back jumpshot (Nikola Jokic assists)WSH 123 – 123 DEN · DEN <1% → 52% +51DEN <1% → 52%+51 pts
- Q42.1Jordan Poole makes 35-foot three pointer (Kyshawn George assists)WSH 126 – 123 DEN · WSH 49% → >99% +51WSH 49% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -12.5
- ML WSH +500 / DEN -700
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -10.5
- DEN 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- DEN: Elo 84.1%, market 84.0%
- Fair odds
- DEN -525
- WSH +525 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 115.0 – 127.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1311 | 1605 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +37 | +36 | WSH: Missing Marcus Smart −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +290 Elo | DEN 84.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 83.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 83.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 84.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30108.7 | Points scored | 121.23rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.6 | Points allowed | 116.725th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−12.0 | Margin | +4.56th of 30 |
| 30th of 30104.9 | Offense rating | 118.12nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30116.5 | Defense rating | 113.822nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.2 | Pace | 101.87th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 27th of 307–25 | Road vs home | 23–105th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
+37 Elo- Marcus Smart non-covid illness−7 Elo
Nuggets
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–36 | 32–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 23–27 |
| Underdog | 29–35 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders | 32–33 | 38–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–2 DEN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.