Oklahoma City Thunder at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints31
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds12
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints21
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists10
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–105
- Q49.0Adam Flagler defensive rebound121–105
- Q49.0Ryan Rollins misses 28-foot three point shot121–105
- Q413.1Andre Jackson Jr. defensive rebound121–105
- Q417.1Adam Flagler misses 27-foot three point jumper121–105
- Q441.1Pat Connaughton makes free throw 2 of 2121–105
- Q441.1Isaiah Joe enters the game for Alex Caruso121–104
- Q441.1Pat Connaughton makes free throw 1 of 2121–104
- Q441.1Adam Flagler shooting foul121–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q152.1Damian Lillard makes 32-foot three point step back jumpshotOKC 24 – 26 MIL · MIL 35% → 42% +7MIL 35% → 42%+7 pts
- Q211:23Isaiah Joe makes 26-foot three pointer (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)OKC 28 – 26 MIL · OKC 60% → 67% +7OKC 60% → 67%+7 pts
- Q210:56Damian Lillard makes 29-foot three point jumper (Gary Trent Jr. assists)OKC 28 – 29 MIL · MIL 33% → 40% +7MIL 33% → 40%+7 pts
- Q28:04Isaiah Joe makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alex Caruso assists)OKC 38 – 33 MIL · OKC 67% → 73% +7OKC 67% → 73%+7 pts
- Q25:15Kevin Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)OKC 44 – 39 MIL · MIL 21% → 27% +6MIL 21% → 27%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -5.5
- ML OKC -205 / MIL +170
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -5.5
- OKC 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- OKC: Elo 70.0%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- OKC -181
- MIL +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 119.5 – 114.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1736 | 1585 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | MIL and OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +46 | +13 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +147 Elo | OKC 70.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 68.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 68.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 114.713th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.0 | Points allowed | 112.112th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.0 | Margin | +2.611th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.8 | Offense rating | 113.112th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.1 | Defense rating | 110.511th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.6 | Pace | 101.112th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3026–7 | Road vs home | 23–118th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–25 | 34–33 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 41–24 | 24–23 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders | 39–29 | 34–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 2–2 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.