Chicago Bulls at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints24
- Tre JonesAssists9
- Josh GiddeyRebounds7
Suns- Devin BookerPoints41
- Kevin DurantAssists8
- Royce O'NealeRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–127
- Q43.1Kevin Huerter makes driving layup (Josh Giddey assists)121–127
- Q48.0Devin Booker makes two point shot (Kevin Durant assists)119–127
- Q413.0Coby White lost ball turnover (Cody Martin steals)119–125
- Q419.0Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 2119–125
- Q419.0Cody Martin enters the game for Tyus Jones119–124
- Q419.0Devin Booker makes free throw 1 of 2119–124
- Q419.0Tre Jones personal take foul119–123
- Q419.1Josh Giddey makes driving layup119–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:02Coby White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)CHI 3 – 2 PHX · CHI 33% → 38% +6CHI 33% → 38%+6 pts
- Q110:39Kevin Huerter makes 25-foot three point shot (Tre Jones assists)CHI 6 – 2 PHX · CHI 39% → 45% +6CHI 39% → 45%+6 pts
- Q12:20Julian Phillips makes 22-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHI 20 – 21 PHX · CHI 29% → 36% +6CHI 29% → 36%+6 pts
- Q12:05Cody Martin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Oso Ighodaro assists)CHI 20 – 24 PHX · PHX 64% → 71% +6PHX 64% → 71%+6 pts
- Q25:18Kevin Durant makes 25-foot three point shot (Devin Booker assists)CHI 35 – 43 PHX · PHX 73% → 79% +6PHX 73% → 79%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -5.5
- ML CHI +165 / PHX -195
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -1.5
- PHX 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.2 pts
- PHX: Elo 55.5%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- PHX -175
- CHI +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 115.0 – 120.5 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +4 | −22 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +38 Elo | PHX 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 63.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 114.413th of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.8 | Points allowed | 115.820th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.3 | Margin | −1.417th of 30 |
| 20th of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 114.67th of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 116.027th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.5 | Pace | 98.924th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 12th of 3016–17 | Road vs home | 20–1313th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–32 | 28–41 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–8 | 17–24 |
| Underdog | 27–24 | 11–17 |
| Overs–unders | 33–35 | 34–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 0–3 PHX in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.