Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints21
- Devin BookerAssists11
- Kevin DurantRebounds9
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints33
- Luka DoncicAssists8
- Luka DoncicRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–107
- Q412.1shot clock turnover96–107
- Q435.0Kevin Durant bad pass (Austin Reaves steals)96–107
- Q438.1Dorian Finney-Smith makes tip shot96–107
- Q438.1Dorian Finney-Smith offensive rebound96–105
- Q440.0Luka Doncic misses driving layup96–105
- Q443.1Jordan Goodwin offensive rebound96–105
- Q448.0Austin Reaves misses 22-foot three point jumper96–105
- Q41:09Devin Booker makes driving layup (Tyus Jones assists)96–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:18Austin Reaves makes 26-foot three pointerPHX 9 – 11 LAL · LAL 55% → 61% +6LAL 55% → 61%+6 pts
- Q37:04Royce O'Neale makes 25-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 55 – 63 LAL · PHX 15% → 22% +7PHX 15% → 22%+7 pts
- Q36:50Gabe Vincent makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dorian Finney-Smith assists)PHX 55 – 66 LAL · LAL 78% → 85% +7LAL 78% → 85%+7 pts
- Q36:09Austin Reaves makes 28-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)PHX 59 – 71 LAL · LAL 81% → 87% +6LAL 81% → 87%+6 pts
- Q49:10Tyus Jones makes 25-foot three point shot (Devin Booker assists)PHX 76 – 85 LAL · PHX 7% → 12% +6PHX 7% → 12%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -3.5
- ML PHX +125 / LAL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -5.5
- LAL 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +14.3 pts
- LAL: Elo 71.4%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- LAL -133
- PHX +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 111.5 – 115.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1602 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −19 | −31 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +159 Elo | LAL 71.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 58.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.4 | Points scored | 113.018th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 111.711th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−1.8 | Margin | +1.313th of 30 |
| 7th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 113.211th of 30 |
| 27th of 30116.4 | Defense rating | 111.912th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.0 | Pace | 99.521st of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 21st of 3012–23 | Road vs home | 25–73rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–40 | 37–28 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–24 | 20–17 |
| Underdog | 11–16 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders | 34–33 | 31–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 4–4 LAL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.
- Nov 26LAL 100 @ PHX 127Picked PHX 56%Hit
- Oct 28LAL 105 @ PHX 109Picked PHX 60%Hit
- Oct 25PHX 116 @ LAL 123Picked LAL 52%Hit
- Feb 25LAL 113 @ PHX 123Picked PHX 53%Hit
- Jan 11PHX 127 @ LAL 109Picked LAL 56%Miss
- Dec 5PHX 103 @ LAL 106Picked PHX 52%Miss
- Nov 10LAL 122 @ PHX 119Picked PHX 72%Miss
- Oct 26PHX 95 @ LAL 100Picked PHX 64%Miss