Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints23
- Domantas SabonisAssists12
- Domantas SabonisRebounds11
Suns- Devin BookerPoints22
- Devin BookerAssists13
- Oso IghodaroRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–122
- Q410.1shot clock turnover106–122
- Q435.1Bol Bol defensive rebound106–122
- Q437.1Jake LaRavia misses 25-foot three point jumper106–122
- Q443.0Bol Bol enters the game for Ryan Dunn106–122
- Q443.0shot clock turnover106–122
- Q41:07Isaac Jones makes 2-foot dunk106–122
- Q41:08Isaac Jones offensive rebound104–122
- Q41:11Markelle Fultz misses 13-foot pullup jump shot104–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:17Tyus Jones makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)SAC 52 – 57 PHX · PHX 58% → 66% +8PHX 58% → 66%+8 pts
- Q257.1Keegan Murray makes 31-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)SAC 57 – 59 PHX · SAC 34% → 42% +8SAC 34% → 42%+8 pts
- Q211.0Kevin Durant makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)SAC 57 – 62 PHX · PHX 58% → 66% +8PHX 58% → 66%+8 pts
- Q310:37Bradley Beal makes 27-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)SAC 59 – 67 PHX · PHX 67% → 75% +8PHX 67% → 75%+8 pts
- Q33:12Devin Booker makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)SAC 75 – 85 PHX · PHX 76% → 83% +8PHX 76% → 83%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -1.5
- ML SAC +105 / PHX -125
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -1.5
- PHX 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- PHX: Elo 55.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PHX -114
- SAC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 115.0 – 116.5 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −2 | −8 | SAC: Usual rotation · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +37 Elo | PHX 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 55.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.4 | Points scored | 114.314th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.4 | Points allowed | 116.422nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −2.119th of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.3 | Offense rating | 114.37th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 116.427th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.7 | Pace | 99.023rd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 11th of 3017–17 | Road vs home | 18–1313th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–37 | 26–40 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–26 | 15–24 |
| Underdog | 8–11 | 11–16 |
| Overs–unders | 36–29 | 34–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 4–3 PHX in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.