Phoenix Suns at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Bradley BealPoints25
- Royce O'NealeAssists8
- Kevin DurantRebounds7
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints29
- Alperen SengunAssists7
- Tari EasonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–111
- Q422.1Damion Lee makes 25-foot three point jumper (Collin Gillespie assists)104–111
- Q424.1Collin Gillespie offensive rebound101–111
- Q426.1Ryan Dunn misses free throw 2 of 2101–111
- Q426.1Ryan Dunn makes free throw 1 of 2101–111
- Q426.1Jock Landale shooting foul100–111
- Q434.1Ryan Dunn defensive rebound100–111
- Q435.1Aaron Holiday misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot100–111
- Q455.1Oso Ighodaro makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Collin Gillespie assists)100–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:32Tyus Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bol Bol assists)PHX 45 – 44 HOU · PHX 36% → 44% +8PHX 36% → 44%+8 pts
- Q23:00Bol Bol makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)PHX 50 – 50 HOU · PHX 34% → 41% +8PHX 34% → 41%+8 pts
- Q22:42Fred VanVleet makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)PHX 50 – 53 HOU · HOU 59% → 66% +8HOU 59% → 66%+8 pts
- Q36:34Jalen Green makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dillon Brooks assists)PHX 66 – 75 HOU · HOU 75% → 82% +7HOU 75% → 82%+7 pts
- Q32:56Tari Eason makes 22-foot three point jumper (Dillon Brooks assists)PHX 73 – 83 HOU · HOU 79% → 86% +7HOU 79% → 86%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -4.5
- ML PHX +150 / HOU -175
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -3.5
- HOU 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 64.5%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -159
- PHX +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 111.5 – 116.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +13 | +1 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Missing Amen Thompson −18 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +104 Elo | HOU 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 59.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30114.5 | Points scored | 112.917th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 108.94th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−2.0 | Margin | +4.07th of 30 |
| 7th of 30114.4 | Offense rating | 111.417th of 30 |
| 27th of 30116.4 | Defense rating | 107.52nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.1 | Pace | 100.817th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 21st of 3012–22 | Road vs home | 22–107th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+1 Elo- Amen Thompson left ankle sprain−18 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–39 | 36–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 15–24 | 25–20 |
| Underdog | 11–15 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 34–31 | 33–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 2–3 HOU in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.