Toronto Raptors at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints16
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists7
- Orlando RobinsonRebounds8
Suns- Devin BookerPoints27
- Devin BookerAssists6
- Royce O'NealeRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game89–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter89–129
- Q411.1Vasilije Micic defensive rebound89–129
- Q417.1Orlando Robinson misses 8-foot two point shot89–129
- Q433.1Bol Bol makes 2-foot dunk (TyTy Washington Jr. assists)89–129
- Q436.1Vasilije Micic defensive rebound89–127
- Q438.1Jamison Battle misses 22-foot three point jumper89–127
- Q441.1Colin Castleton offensive rebound89–127
- Q441.1Orlando Robinson misses dunk89–127
- Q451.1Monte Morris makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (TyTy Washington Jr. assists)89–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:10Immanuel Quickley makes 26-foot three pointerTOR 17 – 13 PHX · TOR 27% → 33% +6TOR 27% → 33%+6 pts
- Q14:52Ryan Dunn makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)TOR 18 – 18 PHX · PHX 68% → 74% +6PHX 68% → 74%+6 pts
- Q13:16A.J. Lawson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Orlando Robinson assists)TOR 25 – 18 PHX · TOR 35% → 41% +7TOR 35% → 41%+7 pts
- Q11:53Royce O'Neale makes 27-foot three point jumperTOR 27 – 24 PHX · PHX 60% → 67% +7PHX 60% → 67%+7 pts
- Q210:19Tyus Jones makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cody Martin assists)TOR 29 – 32 PHX · PHX 72% → 78% +6PHX 72% → 78%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -9.5
- ML TOR +290 / PHX -380
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -3.5
- PHX 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.5 pts
- PHX: Elo 64.0%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- PHX -309
- TOR +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 107.5 – 117.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1419 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −6 | −24 | TOR: Missing Jakob Poeltl −21 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | TOR crossed 1 time zone and PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +100 Elo | PHX 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 78.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 76.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 75.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30110.9 | Points scored | 114.215th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 116.122nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.6 | Margin | −2.019th of 30 |
| 25th of 30108.7 | Offense rating | 114.38th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 116.327th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.3 | Pace | 98.924th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 26th of 308–24 | Road vs home | 19–1313th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−6 Elo- Jakob Poeltl rest−21 Elo
Suns
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–26 | 27–41 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–4 | 16–24 |
| Underdog | 36–22 | 11–17 |
| Overs–unders | 35–33 | 34–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–1 PHX in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.