Toronto Raptors at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Jakob PoeltlPoints19
- Scottie BarnesAssists6
- Colin CastletonRebounds12
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints22
- Deni AvdijaAssists6
- Donovan ClinganRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–105
- Q40.1Matisse Thybulle defensive rebound102–105
- Q40.1Matisse Thybulle blocks Orlando Robinson 's 27-foot three point jumper102–105
- Q43.1Toumani Camara personal take foul102–105
- Q45.1Matisse Thybulle enters the game for Donovan Clingan102–105
- Q45.1Scoot Henderson enters the game for Shaedon Sharpe102–105
- Q45.1Kris Murray enters the game for Anfernee Simons102–105
- Q45.1Raptors Full timeout102–105
- Q45.1Deni Avdija makes free throw 2 of 2102–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:20Anfernee Simons makes 23-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)TOR 95 – 94 POR · POR 26% → 48% +22POR 26% → 48%+22 pts
- Q42:42Toumani Camara makes 2-foot two point shot (Anfernee Simons assists)TOR 95 – 96 POR · POR 46% → 64% +17POR 46% → 64%+17 pts
- Q42:06Deni Avdija makes 1-foot driving dunkTOR 95 – 98 POR · POR 64% → 81% +16POR 64% → 81%+16 pts
- Q41:34Anfernee Simons makes 27-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)TOR 97 – 102 POR · POR 75% → 94% +19POR 75% → 94%+19 pts
- Q416.0Jamison Battle makes 27-foot three point shot (A.J. Lawson assists)TOR 102 – 103 POR · TOR <1% → 23% +23TOR <1% → 23%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- POR -7.5
- ML TOR +225 / POR -280
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -3.5
- POR 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- POR: Elo 64.0%, market 70.5%
- Fair odds
- POR -239
- TOR +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 109.5 – 117.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1423 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +3 | +29 | TOR: Missing Immanuel Quickley −19 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · POR: Missing Deandre Ayton −16, Robert Williams III −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +100 Elo | POR 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 68.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 68.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 70.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30111.1 | Points scored | 110.624th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 114.617th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.6 | Margin | −4.023rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.8 | Offense rating | 109.424th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 113.419th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.3 | Pace | 100.618th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 26th of 308–23 | Road vs home | 16–1620th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+3 Elo- Immanuel Quickley rest−19 Elo
Trail Blazers
+29 Elo- Deandre Ayton left calf strain−16 Elo
- Robert Williams III left knee sprain−7 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–26 | 38–29 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–4 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 35–22 | 34–25 |
| Overs–unders | 35–32 | 34–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 0–2 POR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.