Chicago Bulls at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints26
- Tre JonesAssists12
- Nikola VucevicRebounds10
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints16
- Isaiah CollierAssists8
- Walker KesslerRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–97
- Q419.1Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound111–97
- Q421.0Isaiah Collier misses driving layup111–97
- Q429.0Tre Jones makes driving layup111–97
- Q451.0Isaiah Collier makes two point shot109–97
- Q457.0Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound109–95
- Q459.1Coby White misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot109–95
- Q41:15Kyle Filipowski makes 11-foot two point shot109–95
- Q41:24Cody Williams defensive rebound109–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q258.2Kevin Huerter makes 22-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHI 49 – 50 UTAH · CHI 48% → 57% +9CHI 48% → 57%+9 pts
- Q255.1Keyonte George makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)CHI 49 – 53 UTAH · UTAH 43% → 52% +9UTAH 43% → 52%+9 pts
- Q222.1Tre Jones makes 24-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHI 54 – 53 UTAH · CHI 54% → 62% +9CHI 54% → 62%+9 pts
- Q39:36Kevin Huerter makes 27-foot three point jumper (Matas Buzelis assists)CHI 62 – 60 UTAH · CHI 56% → 65% +9CHI 56% → 65%+9 pts
- Q38:11Matas Buzelis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kevin Huerter assists)CHI 65 – 62 UTAH · CHI 59% → 68% +9CHI 59% → 68%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -4.5
- ML CHI -190 / UTAH +160
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -3
- CHI 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- CHI: Elo 62.6%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- CHI -170
- UTAH +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 123.0 – 118.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1359 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −32 | −33 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Missing Elijah Harkless −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +89 Elo | CHI 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 58.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.6 | Points scored | 112.520th of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.1 | Points allowed | 120.028th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.5 | Margin | −7.527th of 30 |
| 19th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 109.623rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 116.929th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.5 | Pace | 102.05th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 13th of 3015–17 | Road vs home | 8–2529th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−33 Elo- Elijah Harkless did not dress−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–32 | 35–32 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 27–24 | 35–30 |
| Overs–unders | 33–34 | 40–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–1 UTAH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.