Brooklyn Nets at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints24
- Cam ThomasAssists10
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds14
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints31
- Tre JonesAssists6
- Kevin HuerterRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–116
- Q47.0Coby White defensive rebound110–116
- Q49.0Cam Thomas misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot110–116
- Q414.0Julian Phillips makes free throw 2 of 2110–116
- Q414.0Julian Phillips makes free throw 1 of 2110–115
- Q414.0Nic Claxton personal take foul110–114
- Q416.1Bulls Full timeout110–114
- Q416.1Nic Claxton makes 7-foot two point shot (Cam Thomas assists)110–114
- Q420.1Nets offensive team rebound108–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:20Tyrese Martin makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nic Claxton assists)BKN 95 – 91 CHI · BKN 54% → 68% +14BKN 54% → 68%+14 pts
- Q44:59Nic Claxton makes 3-foot alley oop dunk shot (Keon Johnson assists)BKN 99 – 97 CHI · BKN 49% → 62% +13BKN 49% → 62%+13 pts
- Q44:49Julian Phillips makes 5-foot alley oop dunk shot (Tre Jones assists)BKN 99 – 99 CHI · CHI 38% → 51% +13CHI 38% → 51%+13 pts
- Q44:29Nic Claxton makes driving layup (Tyrese Martin assists)BKN 101 – 99 CHI · BKN 49% → 63% +13BKN 49% → 63%+13 pts
- Q43:54Kevin Huerter makes tip shotBKN 101 – 103 CHI · CHI 51% → 65% +14CHI 51% → 65%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -1.5
- ML BKN +100 / CHI -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -1.5
- CHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- CHI: Elo 56.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CHI -109
- BKN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 114.5 – 116.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1375 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | −33 | BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +49 Elo | CHI 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 53.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30105.2 | Points scored | 116.69th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.5 | Points allowed | 120.329th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−6.3 | Margin | −3.722nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.2 | Offense rating | 110.921st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 114.425th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.6 | Pace | 104.63rd of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 21st of 3012–22 | Road vs home | 12–2226th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–30 | 32–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 31–24 | 26–24 |
| Overs–unders | 28–37 | 32–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 4–1 CHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.