Brooklyn Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints27
- Trendon WatfordAssists6
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds7
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints30
- Darius GarlandAssists8
- Jarrett AllenRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–109
- Q40.0Evan Mobley lost ball turnover (Cameron Johnson steals)104–109
- Q44.1Evan Mobley defensive rebound104–109
- Q46.1Cam Thomas misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot104–109
- Q413.1Max Strus makes free throw 2 of 2104–109
- Q413.1Isaac Okoro enters the game for Sam Merrill104–108
- Q413.1Max Strus makes free throw 1 of 2104–108
- Q413.1Tyrese Martin personal foul104–107
- Q414.1Tyrese Martin enters the game for Ziaire Williams104–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:18Darius Garland makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotBKN 86 – 81 CLE · CLE 37% → 50% +13CLE 37% → 50%+13 pts
- Q410:18Noah Clowney makes 25-foot three pointer (Day'Ron Sharpe assists)BKN 91 – 83 CLE · BKN 52% → 65% +13BKN 52% → 65%+13 pts
- Q44:54Cameron Johnson makes 26-foot three pointer (Nic Claxton assists)BKN 97 – 98 CLE · BKN 16% → 30% +15BKN 16% → 30%+15 pts
- Q42:09Cameron Johnson makes 12-foot running pullup jump shotBKN 99 – 101 CLE · BKN 11% → 23% +12BKN 11% → 23%+12 pts
- Q451.1Darius Garland makes 1-foot two point shot (Max Strus assists)BKN 99 – 103 CLE · CLE 82% → 96% +13CLE 82% → 96%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -14.5
- ML BKN +600 / CLE -900
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 89%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -13.5
- CLE 89%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 89.5%, market 86.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -630
- BKN +630 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 104.5 – 119.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1376 | 1714 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −3 | −33 | BKN: Missing D'Angelo Russell −20 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | CLE crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +372 Elo | CLE 89.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 89.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 89.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 86.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30105.2 | Points scored | 122.91st of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.6 | Points allowed | 111.510th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−6.3 | Margin | +11.42nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.2 | Offense rating | 120.51st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 109.36th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.6 | Pace | 101.85th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 21st of 3012–21 | Road vs home | 29–41st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−3 Elo- D'Angelo Russell right ankle injury−20 Elo
Cavaliers
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–30 | 42–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 38–20 |
| Underdog | 30–24 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 28–36 | 41–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 1–6 CLE in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.