Chicago Bulls at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints23
- Tre JonesAssists6
- Coby WhiteRebounds7
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints28
- Fred VanVleetAssists7
- Alperen SengunRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–117
- Q41.0Tre Jones makes 1-foot two point shot114–117
- Q45.1Aaron Holiday makes free throw 2 of 2112–117
- Q45.1Rockets offensive team rebound112–116
- Q45.1Aaron Holiday misses free throw 1 of 2112–116
- Q45.1Kevin Huerter personal take foul112–116
- Q45.1Aaron Holiday defensive rebound112–116
- Q46.0Coby White misses driving layup112–116
- Q413.1Bulls Full timeout112–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:20Patrick Williams makes 22-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHI 88 – 87 HOU · CHI 29% → 41% +12CHI 29% → 41%+12 pts
- Q49:31Kevin Huerter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Matas Buzelis assists)CHI 91 – 92 HOU · CHI 22% → 34% +12CHI 22% → 34%+12 pts
- Q48:35Jae'Sean Tate makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)CHI 93 – 97 HOU · HOU 66% → 78% +12HOU 66% → 78%+12 pts
- Q45:52Jalen Green makes 25-foot three pointerCHI 98 – 100 HOU · HOU 53% → 70% +17HOU 53% → 70%+17 pts
- Q437.1Nikola Vucevic makes 27-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHI 112 – 114 HOU · CHI <1% → 16% +15CHI <1% → 16%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -8.5
- ML CHI +280 / HOU -360
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4.5
- HOU 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 67.6%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- HOU -297
- CHI +297 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 110.5 – 119.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −31 | −12 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Missing Amen Thompson −22, Tari Eason −22 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +128 Elo | HOU 67.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 73.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 72.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30116.6 | Points scored | 113.217th of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.2 | Points allowed | 108.74th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.5 | Margin | +4.55th of 30 |
| 19th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 111.817th of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 107.32nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.5 | Pace | 100.717th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 12th of 3015–16 | Road vs home | 24–104th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−12 Elo- Amen Thompson left ankle sprain−22 Elo
- Tari Eason left leg injury−22 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–32 | 38–29 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 27–20 |
| Underdog | 26–24 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 32–34 | 34–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–2 HOU in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.