Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Brandon WilliamsPoints25
- Naji MarshallAssists3
- Klay ThompsonRebounds9
Rockets- Tari EasonPoints30
- Jalen GreenAssists5
- Alperen SengunRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–133
- Q419.1Brandon Williams makes 25-foot three pointer96–133
- Q425.1Aaron Holiday makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot93–133
- Q446.1Brandon Williams makes layup (Dwight Powell assists)93–130
- Q41:04Cam Whitmore makes 26-foot three point jumper (Aaron Holiday assists)91–130
- Q41:16Brandon Williams makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot91–127
- Q41:26Spencer Dinwiddie defensive rebound89–127
- Q41:27Jae'Sean Tate misses driving floating jump shot89–127
- Q41:44Brandon Williams makes 12-foot step back jumpshot89–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:43Jalen Green makes 28-foot three pointerDAL 4 – 5 HOU · HOU 79% → 83% +4HOU 79% → 83%+4 pts
- Q18:12Tari Eason makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)DAL 8 – 12 HOU · HOU 82% → 86% +4HOU 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q14:42Spencer Dinwiddie makes 24-foot three pointerDAL 15 – 16 HOU · DAL 14% → 18% +4DAL 14% → 18%+4 pts
- Q151.0Aaron Holiday makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)DAL 21 – 25 HOU · HOU 81% → 85% +5HOU 81% → 85%+5 pts
- Q28:11Caleb Martin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Naji Marshall assists)DAL 35 – 41 HOU · DAL 9% → 13% +4DAL 9% → 13%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -11.5
- ML DAL +425 / HOU -650
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -6.5
- HOU 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 73.8%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -455
- DAL +455 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 104.0 – 115.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −89 | +1 | DAL: Missing Daniel Gafford −31, P.J. Washington −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · HOU: Missing Amen Thompson −18 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +180 Elo | HOU 73.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 81.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 80.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 82.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30114.8 | Points scored | 112.917th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.6 | Points allowed | 108.85th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +4.07th of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 111.517th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 107.52nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.0 | Pace | 100.717th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 18th of 3014–19 | Road vs home | 23–105th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−89 Elo- Daniel Gafford right knee sprain−31 Elo
- P.J. Washington right ankle sprain−1 Elo
Rockets
+1 Elo- Amen Thompson left ankle sprain−18 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–34 | 37–29 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 14–15 | 26–20 |
| Underdog | 19–19 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 34–33 | 33–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 4–3 HOU in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.