Cleveland Cavaliers at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints18
- Darius GarlandAssists6
- Evan MobleyRebounds12
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints42
- Devin BookerAssists10
- Oso IghodaroRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–123
- Q46.1shot clock turnover112–123
- Q431.0De'Andre Hunter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)112–123
- Q437.1Tyus Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)109–123
- Q452.0Darius Garland out of bounds lost ball turnover109–120
- Q453.2Oso Ighodaro makes 3-foot dunk (Devin Booker assists)109–120
- Q41:00Darius Garland makes 26-foot three point jumper (De'Andre Hunter assists)109–118
- Q41:01Max Strus offensive rebound106–118
- Q41:04Donovan Mitchell misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot106–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:36Dean Wade makes 24-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 44 – 51 PHX · CLE 46% → 54% +8CLE 46% → 54%+8 pts
- Q25:17Dean Wade makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)CLE 47 – 53 PHX · CLE 48% → 56% +8CLE 48% → 56%+8 pts
- Q24:39Kevin Durant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)CLE 47 – 56 PHX · PHX 45% → 53% +8PHX 45% → 53%+8 pts
- Q39:39Collin Gillespie makes 27-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)CLE 53 – 67 PHX · PHX 65% → 73% +8PHX 65% → 73%+8 pts
- Q38:59Ryan Dunn makes 23-foot three point jumper (Collin Gillespie assists)CLE 55 – 70 PHX · PHX 69% → 77% +8PHX 69% → 77%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -8.5
- ML CLE -380 / PHX +290
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -7
- CLE 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 75.3%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- CLE -309
- PHX +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 121.0 – 112.5 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1674 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +47 | −7 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CLE crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +194 Elo | CLE 75.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 71.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 71.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 75.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.4 | Points scored | 114.613th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 115.821st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+10.4 | Margin | −1.317th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.2 | Offense rating | 114.87th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.0 | Defense rating | 116.027th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.7 | Pace | 98.924th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3026–8 | Road vs home | 21–1313th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–26 | 29–41 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 39–24 | 18–24 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 11–17 |
| Overs–unders | 44–25 | 35–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 1–2 PHX in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.