Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints24
- Paolo BancheroAssists7
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds14
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints23
- Donovan MitchellAssists5
- Jarrett AllenRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–103
- Q40.0Magic offensive team rebound108–103
- Q40.1Paolo Banchero misses 47-foot three point pullup jump shot108–103
- Q41.0Paolo Banchero defensive rebound108–103
- Q42.1Donovan Mitchell misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot108–103
- Q47.1Darius Garland enters the game for Tristan Thompson108–103
- Q47.1Cavaliers Full timeout108–103
- Q47.1Franz Wagner makes free throw 2 of 2108–103
- Q47.1Tristan Thompson enters the game for Darius Garland107–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:27Paolo Banchero makes 26-foot three point jumperORL 95 – 93 CLE · ORL 33% → 51% +18ORL 33% → 51%+18 pts
- Q45:13Darius Garland makes 29-foot three point step back jumpshotORL 95 – 96 CLE · CLE 49% → 67% +18CLE 49% → 67%+18 pts
- Q41:41Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 24-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 100 – 100 CLE · ORL 16% → 44% +28ORL 16% → 44%+28 pts
- Q41:02Max Strus makes 26-foot three pointer (Jarrett Allen assists)ORL 102 – 103 CLE · CLE 28% → 68% +41CLE 28% → 68%+41 pts
- Q445.1Paolo Banchero makes 16-foot pullup jump shotORL 104 – 103 CLE · ORL 30% → 62% +32ORL 30% → 62%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -10.5
- ML ORL +380 / CLE -550
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -12
- CLE 88%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 87.7%, market 80.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -406
- ORL +406 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 106.0 – 116.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1436 | 1721 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −5 | +15 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | ORL crossed 1 time zone and CLE crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +341 Elo | CLE 87.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 80.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 81.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 80.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30104.5 | Points scored | 122.81st of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.0 | Points allowed | 111.69th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +11.22nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.5 | Offense rating | 120.41st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30108.1 | Defense rating | 109.36th of 30 |
| 28th of 3097.8 | Pace | 101.96th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 19th of 3013–21 | Road vs home | 30–41st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–35 | 43–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–17 | 39–21 |
| Underdog | 12–18 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 27–41 | 42–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 5–8 CLE in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.
- Feb 25CLE 122 @ ORL 82Picked CLE 68%Hit
- Nov 1ORL 109 @ CLE 120Picked CLE 72%Hit
- May 5ORL 94 @ CLE 106PlayoffsPicked ORL 55%Miss
- May 3CLE 96 @ ORL 103PlayoffsPicked ORL 66%Hit
- Apr 30ORL 103 @ CLE 104PlayoffsPicked ORL 55%Miss
- Apr 27CLE 89 @ ORL 112PlayoffsPicked ORL 56%Hit
- Apr 25CLE 83 @ ORL 121PlayoffsPicked CLE 50%Miss
- Apr 22ORL 86 @ CLE 96PlayoffsPicked CLE 58%Hit