Cleveland Cavaliers at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Evan MobleyPoints22
- Darius GarlandAssists9
- Evan MobleyRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game133–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter133–124
- Q422.0
GG Jackson makes 2-foot two point shot133–124 - Q427.0GG Jackson defensive rebound133–122
- Q428.2Craig Porter Jr. misses free throw 2 of 2133–122
- Q428.2Craig Porter Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2133–122
- Q428.2Cam Spencer personal foul132–122
- Q435.1Cavaliers defensive team rebound132–122
- Q435.1Craig Porter Jr. blocks GG Jackson 's 2-foot driving layup132–122
- Q441.1Jaylon Tyson makes free throw 2 of 2132–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:38Max Strus makes 23-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)CLE 22 – 20 MEM · CLE 52% → 58% +7CLE 52% → 58%+7 pts
- Q11:48Ty Jerome makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Evan Mobley assists)CLE 30 – 24 MEM · CLE 61% → 67% +7CLE 61% → 67%+7 pts
- Q152.2De'Andre Hunter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)CLE 33 – 26 MEM · CLE 63% → 69% +7CLE 63% → 69%+7 pts
- Q147.1Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)CLE 33 – 29 MEM · MEM 30% → 37% +7MEM 30% → 37%+7 pts
- Q13.1Evan Mobley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Sam Merrill assists)CLE 36 – 29 MEM · CLE 63% → 70% +7CLE 63% → 70%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -1.5
- ML CLE -130 / MEM +110
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -4
- CLE 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +12.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 66.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -119
- MEM +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 122.5 – 121.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 243.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1715 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +3 | +26 | CLE: Usual rotation · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +118 Elo | CLE 66.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 57.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.7 | Points scored | 122.62nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.4 | Points allowed | 116.725th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+11.3 | Margin | +5.94th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.4 | Offense rating | 115.46th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.3 | Defense rating | 109.88th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.8 | Pace | 106.11st of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 1st of 3025–6 | Road vs home | 24–104th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–23 | 36–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 38–21 | 26–19 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 10–11 |
| Overs–unders | 41–24 | 39–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 3–0 MEM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.