Cleveland Cavaliers at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Evan MobleyPoints31
- Ty JeromeAssists6
- Evan MobleyRebounds10
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints27
- Malik MonkAssists8
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–123
- Q41.1Malik Monk lost ball turnover (Donovan Mitchell steals)119–123
- Q41.1Malik Monk defensive rebound119–123
- Q42.1Ty Jerome misses 29-foot three point jumper119–123
- Q412.1Malik Monk makes free throw 2 of 2119–123
- Q412.1Malik Monk makes free throw 1 of 2119–122
- Q412.1Evan Mobley shooting foul119–121
- Q432.1Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three point shot (Ty Jerome assists)119–121
- Q435.0Cavaliers Full timeout116–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:50Trey Lyles makes two point shotCLE 112 – 115 SAC · SAC 57% → 76% +19SAC 57% → 76%+19 pts
- Q41:45Donovan Mitchell makes driving layupCLE 114 – 115 SAC · CLE 24% → 43% +19CLE 24% → 43%+19 pts
- Q41:35DeMar DeRozan makes driving layupCLE 114 – 117 SAC · SAC 58% → 78% +20SAC 58% → 78%+20 pts
- Q41:22Donovan Mitchell makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotCLE 116 – 117 SAC · CLE 20% → 41% +21CLE 20% → 41%+21 pts
- Q41:08DeMar DeRozan makes 16-foot pullup jump shotCLE 116 – 119 SAC · SAC 60% → 83% +22SAC 60% → 83%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -6.5
- ML CLE -260 / SAC +215
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -8
- CLE 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 78.4%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- CLE -227
- SAC +227 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 117.5 – 111.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1686 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +24 | −90 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +224 Elo | CLE 78.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 68.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 69.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30122.5 | Points scored | 116.58th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 115.619th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+10.6 | Margin | +0.915th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.1 | Offense rating | 114.59th of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 113.620th of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.8 | Pace | 100.619th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3026–7 | Road vs home | 17–1516th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−90 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–25 | 29–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 39–23 | 21–26 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 8–12 |
| Overs–unders | 43–25 | 37–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 1–1 SAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.