Memphis Grizzlies at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints44
- Luke KennardAssists8
- Brandon ClarkeRebounds8
Kings- Malik MonkPoints28
- DeMar DeRozanAssists8
- Keegan MurrayRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–132
- Q419.1Trey Lyles defensive rebound122–132
- Q421.0Jaren Jackson Jr. misses 5-foot two point shot122–132
- Q426.1shot clock turnover122–132
- Q426.2Kings offensive team rebound122–132
- Q427.1John Konchar blocks DeMar DeRozan 's 14-foot two point shot122–132
- Q450.2Brandon Clarke makes tip shot122–132
- Q452.0Brandon Clarke offensive rebound120–132
- Q453.1Desmond Bane misses two point shot120–132
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:18Keegan Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jonas Valanciunas assists)MEM 61 – 71 SAC · SAC 75% → 82% +7SAC 75% → 82%+7 pts
- Q39:25Desmond Bane makes 33-foot three pointerMEM 68 – 75 SAC · MEM 18% → 24% +7MEM 18% → 24%+7 pts
- Q38:39Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three point shotMEM 71 – 75 SAC · MEM 24% → 32% +8MEM 24% → 32%+8 pts
- Q37:39Keon Ellis makes 23-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)MEM 71 – 80 SAC · SAC 74% → 81% +7SAC 74% → 81%+7 pts
- Q332.1Zach LaVine makes 27-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)MEM 86 – 95 SAC · SAC 77% → 85% +8SAC 77% → 85%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -3.5
- ML MEM +135 / SAC -155
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -1.5
- SAC 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.3 pts
- SAC: Elo 44.6%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- SAC -143
- MEM +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 116.0 – 119.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +4 | −13 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +38 Elo | MEM 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 50.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.7 | Points scored | 116.310th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.6 | Points allowed | 115.519th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+6.1 | Margin | +0.815th of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 114.29th of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.8 | Defense rating | 113.520th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.0 | Pace | 100.619th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 8th of 3018–14 | Road vs home | 16–1518th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–31 | 28–38 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 27–19 | 20–26 |
| Underdog | 10–12 | 8–12 |
| Overs–unders | 40–28 | 36–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 1–4 SAC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.