Miami Heat at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Kel'el WarePoints19
- Tyler HerroAssists7
- Kel'el WareRebounds11
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points31
- Scotty Pippen Jr.Assists11
- Desmond BaneRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game91–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter91–125
- Q419.0shot clock turnover91–125
- Q441.1GG Jackson defensive rebound91–125
- Q443.1Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot91–125
- Q456.1GG Jackson makes free throw 2 of 291–125
- Q456.1GG Jackson makes free throw 1 of 291–124
- Q456.1Kel'el Ware shooting foul91–123
- Q41:01John Konchar defensive rebound91–123
- Q41:03Pelle Larsson misses 23-foot three point jumper91–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:55Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)MIA 0 – 3 MEM · MEM 65% → 70% +6MEM 65% → 70%+6 pts
- Q15:56Tyler Herro makes 22-foot three point jumper (Duncan Robinson assists)MIA 16 – 19 MEM · MIA 25% → 30% +6MIA 25% → 30%+6 pts
- Q28:45Davion Mitchell makes 26-foot three pointerMIA 39 – 42 MEM · MIA 25% → 31% +6MIA 25% → 31%+6 pts
- Q26:13Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Wells assists)MIA 40 – 49 MEM · MEM 76% → 81% +6MEM 76% → 81%+6 pts
- Q23:58Andrew Wiggins makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)MIA 43 – 51 MEM · MIA 15% → 20% +5MIA 15% → 20%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -5.5
- ML MIA +170 / MEM -210
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -5.5
- MEM 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.8 pts
- MEM: Elo 70.5%, market 64.7%
- Fair odds
- MEM -183
- MIA +183 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 109.5 – 115.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | MEM and MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −20 | +1 | MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +151 Elo | MEM 70.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 70.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 70.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 64.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30109.6 | Points scored | 122.72nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 117.025th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +5.74th of 30 |
| 21st of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 115.46th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 110.09th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.4 | Pace | 106.11st of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 19th of 3013–20 | Road vs home | 24–118th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–39 | 36–31 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 15–21 | 26–19 |
| Underdog | 12–18 | 10–12 |
| Overs–unders | 34–32 | 40–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 1–1 MEM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.