LA Clippers at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Bogdan BogdanovicPoints30
- James HardenAssists11
- Ivica ZubacRebounds14
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints31
- Tyler HerroAssists7
- Bam AdebayoRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–104
- Q49.1Amir Coffey defensive rebound119–104
- Q412.1Pelle Larsson misses 25-foot three point jumper119–104
- Q431.0Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 12-foot two point shot (Nicolas Batum assists)119–104
- Q444.0Ivica Zubac offensive rebound117–104
- Q448.0James Harden misses 28-foot three point step back jumpshot117–104
- Q41:12Andrew Wiggins makes free throw 2 of 2117–104
- Q41:12Heat offensive team rebound117–103
- Q41:12Andrew Wiggins misses free throw 1 of 2117–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:23Pelle Larsson makes 25-foot three point shot (Tyler Herro assists)LAC 69 – 65 MIA · MIA 30% → 39% +9MIA 30% → 39%+9 pts
- Q36:39James Harden makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotLAC 74 – 67 MIA · LAC 61% → 70% +9LAC 61% → 70%+9 pts
- Q33:13Andrew Wiggins makes 25-foot three pointer (Tyler Herro assists)LAC 81 – 77 MIA · MIA 27% → 37% +10MIA 27% → 37%+10 pts
- Q32:23Duncan Robinson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)LAC 84 – 80 MIA · MIA 27% → 37% +10MIA 27% → 37%+10 pts
- Q38.2Amir Coffey makes 22-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 92 – 84 MIA · LAC 68% → 78% +10LAC 68% → 78%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -1.5
- ML LAC +105 / MIA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -2
- MIA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- MIA: Elo 57.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -114
- LAC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 102.5 – 104.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 206.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −31 | −16 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +52 Elo | MIA 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30111.0 | Points scored | 110.025th of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.9 | Points allowed | 110.57th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.0 | Margin | −0.517th of 30 |
| 19th of 30111.1 | Offense rating | 111.020th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.1 | Defense rating | 111.513th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.3 | Pace | 97.630th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 18th of 3013–20 | Road vs home | 15–1521st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–31 | 27–37 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–16 | 15–20 |
| Underdog | 15–15 | 12–17 |
| Overs–unders | 30–35 | 33–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 3–0 MIA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.