Boston Celtics at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints28
- Jayson TatumAssists5
- Al HorfordRebounds9
Heat- Andrew WigginsPoints23
- Tyler HerroAssists6
- Davion MitchellRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–91
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–91
- Q420.1Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes driving layup103–91
- Q429.0Derrick White makes driving layup103–89
- Q446.1Al Horford defensive rebound101–89
- Q448.1Davion Mitchell misses 23-foot three point jumper101–89
- Q457.0Jayson Tatum makes 23-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)101–89
- Q41:17Andrew Wiggins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)98–89
- Q41:28Tyler Herro defensive rebound98–86
- Q41:32Al Horford misses 23-foot three point jumper98–86
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:07Sam Hauser makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)BOS 70 – 72 MIA · BOS 47% → 58% +11BOS 47% → 58%+11 pts
- Q32:32Payton Pritchard makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Jrue Holiday assists)BOS 73 – 72 MIA · BOS 58% → 68% +11BOS 58% → 68%+11 pts
- Q31:24Andrew Wiggins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)BOS 73 – 77 MIA · MIA 39% → 51% +12MIA 39% → 51%+12 pts
- Q31:02Jayson Tatum makes 25-foot three pointerBOS 76 – 77 MIA · BOS 48% → 60% +12BOS 48% → 60%+12 pts
- Q410:56Derrick White makes 26-foot three pointerBOS 81 – 79 MIA · BOS 59% → 71% +12BOS 59% → 71%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -8.5
- ML BOS -380 / MIA +290
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -6.5
- BOS 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- BOS: Elo 73.7%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- BOS -309
- MIA +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 110.0 – 101.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 211.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1682 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −40 | −16 | BOS: Missing Jaylen Brown −22 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +179 Elo | BOS 73.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 73.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 73.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 75.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30116.8 | Points scored | 109.925th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30108.3 | Points allowed | 110.67th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.5 | Margin | −0.717th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.7 | Offense rating | 111.120th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.1 | Defense rating | 111.813th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.5 | Pace | 97.530th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3024–7 | Road vs home | 15–1622nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−40 Elo- Jaylen Brown right knee injury−22 Elo
Heat
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–36 | 27–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–34 | 15–21 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 12–17 |
| Overs–unders | 30–36 | 34–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 9–1 MIA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.
- Feb 10BOS 103 @ MIA 85Picked BOS 73%Hit
- Dec 2MIA 89 @ BOS 108Picked BOS 77%Hit
- May 1MIA 84 @ BOS 118PlayoffsPicked BOS 76%Hit
- Apr 29BOS 102 @ MIA 88PlayoffsPicked BOS 69%Hit
- Apr 27BOS 104 @ MIA 84PlayoffsPicked BOS 66%Hit
- Apr 24MIA 111 @ BOS 101PlayoffsPicked BOS 78%Miss
- Apr 21MIA 94 @ BOS 114PlayoffsPicked BOS 75%Hit
- Feb 11BOS 110 @ MIA 106Picked BOS 69%Hit