Cleveland Cavaliers at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Max StrusPoints24
- Donovan MitchellAssists11
- Jarrett AllenRebounds8
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints33
- James HardenAssists9
- Ivica ZubacRebounds20
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–132
- Q416.1Ivica Zubac defensive rebound119–132
- Q420.0Isaac Okoro misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot119–132
- Q429.1shot clock turnover119–132
- Q442.1Ivica Zubac offensive rebound119–132
- Q446.0Kawhi Leonard misses 18-foot pullup jump shot119–132
- Q41:05Ivica Zubac defensive rebound119–132
- Q41:08Isaac Okoro misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot119–132
- Q41:17Javonte Green enters the game for Donovan Mitchell119–132
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:59Max Strus makes 22-foot three pointerCLE 93 – 91 LAC · CLE 50% → 60% +10CLE 50% → 60%+10 pts
- Q34:27Max Strus makes 22-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)CLE 96 – 93 LAC · CLE 53% → 63% +10CLE 53% → 63%+10 pts
- Q31:39Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 25-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)CLE 102 – 102 LAC · LAC 36% → 47% +11LAC 36% → 47%+11 pts
- Q410:39Derrick Jones Jr. makes 23-foot three point shot (Nicolas Batum assists)CLE 103 – 111 LAC · LAC 69% → 79% +11LAC 69% → 79%+11 pts
- Q46:32Isaac Okoro makes 23-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 111 – 117 LAC · CLE 11% → 21% +10CLE 11% → 21%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -2.5
- ML CLE -135 / LAC +115
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -4.5
- CLE 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 67.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -124
- LAC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 116.5 – 114.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1704 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +50 | +46 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +124 Elo | CLE 67.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 58.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30122.5 | Points scored | 111.421st of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.5 | Points allowed | 108.44th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+11.0 | Margin | +3.09th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.1 | Offense rating | 111.718th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.3 | Defense rating | 108.74th of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.8 | Pace | 99.123rd of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 1st of 3026–6 | Road vs home | 23–105th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–24 | 37–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 39–22 | 21–16 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 16–15 |
| Overs–unders | 42–25 | 31–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 1–1 LAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.