LA Clippers at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- James HardenPoints25
- James HardenAssists7
- James HardenRebounds8
Hawks- Onyeka OkongwuPoints18
- Trae YoungAssists7
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–98
- Q419.1Cam Christie defensive rebound121–98
- Q424.0Dominick Barlow misses driving floating jump shot121–98
- Q439.1Amir Coffey makes driving layup (Cam Christie assists)121–98
- Q449.0Kobe Brown defensive rebound119–98
- Q452.0Terance Mann misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot119–98
- Q41:07Cam Christie makes two point shot (Kobe Brown assists)119–98
- Q41:10Zaccharie Risacher lost ball turnover (Kobe Brown steals)117–98
- Q41:25Amir Coffey makes dunk (Patty Mills assists)117–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:36Caris LeVert makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (Dyson Daniels assists)LAC 48 – 55 ATL · ATL 50% → 58% +8ATL 50% → 58%+8 pts
- Q20.1Nicolas Batum makes 26-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 53 – 61 ATL · LAC 29% → 37% +8LAC 29% → 37%+8 pts
- Q38:14Kawhi Leonard makes 24-foot running pullup jump shotLAC 64 – 61 ATL · LAC 60% → 68% +9LAC 60% → 68%+9 pts
- Q34:49Nicolas Batum makes 23-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 70 – 67 ATL · LAC 59% → 69% +10LAC 59% → 69%+10 pts
- Q34:06James Harden makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotLAC 73 – 67 ATL · LAC 69% → 77% +9LAC 69% → 77%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -4.5
- ML LAC -205 / ATL +170
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -1.5
- LAC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- LAC: Elo 56.6%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- LAC -181
- ATL +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 119.5 – 115.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +24 | +6 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing Jalen Johnson −15 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +46 Elo | LAC 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 61.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30111.1 | Points scored | 117.45th of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.9 | Points allowed | 119.627th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.2 | Margin | −2.220th of 30 |
| 18th of 30111.4 | Offense rating | 111.219th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.1 | Defense rating | 113.319th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.1 | Pace | 104.92nd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 18th of 3014–20 | Road vs home | 17–1620th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+6 Elo- Jalen Johnson left shoulder surgery−15 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–31 | 32–34 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–16 | 9–16 |
| Underdog | 16–15 | 23–18 |
| Overs–unders | 31–35 | 39–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 2–1 ATL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.