Charlotte Hornets at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Mark WilliamsPoints18
- Mark WilliamsAssists7
- Mark WilliamsRebounds15
Clippers- James HardenPoints31
- Ivica ZubacAssists8
- Ivica ZubacRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game88–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter88–123
- Q46.1shot clock turnover88–123
- Q430.1Nick Smith Jr. makes 14-foot two point shot (Moussa Diabate assists)88–123
- Q445.1Nick Smith Jr. defensive rebound86–123
- Q449.0Cam Christie misses 23-foot three point jumper86–123
- Q41:04Wendell Moore Jr. bad pass (Cam Christie steals)86–123
- Q41:10Amir Coffey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kobe Brown assists)86–123
- Q41:32DaQuan Jeffries makes two point shot86–120
- Q41:32DaQuan Jeffries offensive rebound84–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:26James Harden makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotCHA 2 – 7 LAC · LAC 87% → 90% +3LAC 87% → 90%+3 pts
- Q17:06Mark Williams makes two point shot (DaQuan Jeffries assists)CHA 11 – 9 LAC · CHA 16% → 19% +3CHA 16% → 19%+3 pts
- Q13:51James Harden makes 23-foot three pointerCHA 13 – 20 LAC · LAC 88% → 91% +3LAC 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q13:38Nick Smith Jr. makes 29-foot three point jumper (DaQuan Jeffries assists)CHA 16 – 20 LAC · CHA 9% → 12% +3CHA 9% → 12%+3 pts
- Q26:26Kawhi Leonard makes 24-foot three pointer (Ivica Zubac assists)CHA 32 – 43 LAC · LAC 91% → 94% +3LAC 91% → 94%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -13.5
- ML CHA +550 / LAC -900
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -11.5
- LAC 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- LAC: Elo 86.1%, market 85.4%
- Fair odds
- LAC -585
- CHA +585 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 105.5 – 119.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1283 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +35 | +57 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +317 Elo | LAC 86.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 86.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 86.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 85.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30106.0 | Points scored | 111.221st of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 108.74th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−7.3 | Margin | +2.511th of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.7 | Offense rating | 111.518th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 109.04th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.8 | Pace | 99.222nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 28th of 307–25 | Road vs home | 22–107th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–33 | 36–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–8 | 20–16 |
| Underdog | 33–25 | 16–15 |
| Overs–unders | 24–42 | 31–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 0–3 LAC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.