Milwaukee Bucks at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints32
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists6
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds17
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints22
- Keon EllisAssists6
- Keon EllisRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–108
- Q410.1Kyle Kuzma defensive rebound114–108
- Q413.1DeMar DeRozan misses running pullup jump shot114–108
- Q417.0Keegan Murray defensive rebound114–108
- Q420.0Giannis Antetokounmpo misses free throw 2 of 2114–108
- Q420.0Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 2114–108
- Q420.0Keegan Murray personal foul113–108
- Q422.1Trey Lyles personal foul113–108
- Q422.1Kyle Kuzma defensive rebound113–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:31Jake LaRavia makes 28-foot three point jumper (Keon Ellis assists)MIL 100 – 100 SAC · SAC 35% → 51% +17SAC 35% → 51%+17 pts
- Q45:15Taurean Prince makes 24-foot three point jumper (AJ Green assists)MIL 107 – 103 SAC · MIL 55% → 73% +17MIL 55% → 73%+17 pts
- Q44:53Trey Lyles makes 22-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)MIL 107 – 106 SAC · SAC 27% → 45% +18SAC 27% → 45%+18 pts
- Q43:40Gary Trent Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (AJ Green assists)MIL 110 – 108 SAC · MIL 42% → 64% +22MIL 42% → 64%+22 pts
- Q41:01Gary Trent Jr. makes 26-foot three pointer (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 113 – 108 SAC · MIL 76% → 96% +20MIL 76% → 96%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -1.5
- ML MIL +105 / SAC -125
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -3
- SAC 39%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.4 pts
- SAC: Elo 38.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SAC -114
- MIL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 110.5 – 112.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1580 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −33 | −64 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +79 Elo | MIL 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 116.67th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 115.822nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.5 | Margin | +0.815th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 114.78th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.4 | Defense rating | 114.023rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.0 | Pace | 100.519th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 15th of 3015–18 | Road vs home | 18–1618th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−64 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–35 | 30–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–24 | 21–27 |
| Underdog | 10–11 | 9–12 |
| Overs–unders | 34–36 | 39–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 2–1 SAC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.