Chicago Bulls at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints35
- Nikola VucevicAssists8
- Nikola VucevicRebounds14
Kings- Malik MonkPoints34
- Malik MonkAssists5
- Keegan MurrayRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–116
- Q419.1shot clock turnover128–116
- Q440.2Julian Phillips defensive rebound128–116
- Q444.1Trey Lyles misses 25-foot three point jumper128–116
- Q449.1Coby White makes free throw 2 of 2128–116
- Q449.1Bulls offensive team rebound127–116
- Q449.1Coby White misses free throw 1 of 2127–116
- Q449.1Keegan Murray personal foul127–116
- Q453.0Coby White offensive rebound127–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:14Coby White makes 28-foot three point jumperCHI 90 – 85 SAC · CHI 45% → 57% +12CHI 45% → 57%+12 pts
- Q49:44Zach LaVine makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotCHI 99 – 98 SAC · SAC 42% → 56% +14SAC 42% → 56%+14 pts
- Q49:01Dalen Terry makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kevin Huerter assists)CHI 102 – 101 SAC · CHI 31% → 45% +14CHI 31% → 45%+14 pts
- Q47:36Kevin Huerter makes 23-foot running pullup jump shot (Tre Jones assists)CHI 107 – 103 SAC · CHI 46% → 61% +16CHI 46% → 61%+16 pts
- Q45:03Coby White makes 26-foot three point shot (Kevin Huerter assists)CHI 115 – 107 SAC · CHI 73% → 86% +13CHI 73% → 86%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -7.5
- ML CHI +250 / SAC -300
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -3
- SAC 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.8 pts
- SAC: Elo 62.6%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- SAC -263
- CHI +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 114.5 – 122.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | SAC and CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −27 | −41 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +90 Elo | SAC 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 74.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 73.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.6 | Points scored | 116.67th of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.9 | Points allowed | 115.720th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.3 | Margin | +1.015th of 30 |
| 20th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 114.78th of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 113.721st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.5 | Pace | 100.519th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 13th of 3016–18 | Road vs home | 18–1515th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–33 | 30–38 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–8 | 21–26 |
| Underdog | 27–25 | 9–12 |
| Overs–unders | 34–35 | 38–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–2 SAC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.