Milwaukee Bucks at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints28
- Kyle KuzmaAssists5
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds7
Lakers- Dalton KnechtPoints17
- Bronny JamesAssists5
- Alex LenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–89
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–89
- Q416.1Bronny James bad pass (Pat Connaughton steals)118–89
- Q434.1Lakers defensive team rebound118–89
- Q437.1Pete Nance misses 25-foot three point jumper118–89
- Q450.1Dalton Knecht makes driving layup118–89
- Q41:02Cam Reddish offensive rebound118–87
- Q41:05Cam Reddish misses layup118–87
- Q41:19Cam Reddish defensive rebound118–87
- Q41:23Pat Connaughton misses 26-foot three point jumper118–87
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:44Gabe Vincent makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jaxson Hayes assists)MIL 12 – 8 LAL · LAL 16% → 20% +4LAL 16% → 20%+4 pts
- Q14:27Gary Trent Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 17 – 14 LAL · MIL 72% → 78% +5MIL 72% → 78%+5 pts
- Q13:58Brook Lopez makes 27-foot three point jumper (Taurean Prince assists)MIL 20 – 14 LAL · MIL 78% → 82% +5MIL 78% → 82%+5 pts
- Q21:20Gary Trent Jr. makes 23-foot running pullup jump shot (Ryan Rollins assists)MIL 57 – 46 LAL · MIL 85% → 90% +4MIL 85% → 90%+4 pts
- Q38:39Jordan Goodwin makes 22-foot three point jumper (Gabe Vincent assists)MIL 64 – 55 LAL · LAL 8% → 13% +4LAL 8% → 13%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -8.5
- ML MIL -340 / LAL +270
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -3
- MIL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 62.4%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -286
- LAL +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 112.5 – 104.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1618 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −41 | −178 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Missing Jarred Vanderbilt −10 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +88 Elo | MIL 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 72.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 71.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.2 | Points scored | 113.119th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.1 | Points allowed | 111.49th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.1 | Margin | +1.813th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.8 | Offense rating | 113.311th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 111.612th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.0 | Pace | 99.521st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 16th of 3014–18 | Road vs home | 28–73rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−178 Elo- Jarred Vanderbilt strained right groin−10 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–35 | 40–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 24–24 | 23–17 |
| Underdog | 10–11 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders | 34–35 | 33–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 1–2 LAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.