San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Stephon CastlePoints23
- Chris PaulAssists8
- Stephon CastleRebounds8
Lakers- Austin ReavesPoints30
- Luka DoncicAssists14
- Jaxson HayesRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–125
- Q40.2Jordan Goodwin defensive rebound109–125
- Q46.1Julian Champagnie misses 22-foot three point jumper109–125
- Q418.1Stephon Castle defensive rebound109–125
- Q423.1Bronny James misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot109–125
- Q437.1Blake Wesley makes two point shot (Stephon Castle assists)109–125
- Q441.1Stephon Castle defensive rebound107–125
- Q444.1Dalton Knecht misses 24-foot three point jumper107–125
- Q457.1Blake Wesley out of bounds bad pass turnover107–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:33Chris Paul makes 28-foot three pointer (Harrison Barnes assists)SA 5 – 1 LAL · SA 26% → 31% +5SA 26% → 31%+5 pts
- Q19:17Harrison Barnes makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)SA 9 – 2 LAL · SA 32% → 38% +6SA 32% → 38%+6 pts
- Q19:01Jordan Goodwin makes 22-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)SA 9 – 5 LAL · LAL 62% → 68% +6LAL 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q18:40Luka Doncic makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotSA 9 – 8 LAL · LAL 68% → 74% +6LAL 68% → 74%+6 pts
- Q18:11Austin Reaves makes 27-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)SA 9 – 11 LAL · LAL 74% → 79% +5LAL 74% → 79%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -8.5
- ML SA +300 / LAL -400
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -9
- LAL 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- LAL: Elo 81.5%, market 76.2%
- Fair odds
- LAL -320
- SA +320 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 111.5 – 120.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1407 | 1608 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −49 | −27 | SA: Missing Jordan McLaughlin −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +257 Elo | LAL 81.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 72.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 73.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 76.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.2 | Points scored | 112.919th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 111.49th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.3 | Margin | +1.413th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.5 | Offense rating | 113.112th of 30 |
| 25th of 30114.7 | Defense rating | 111.712th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.3 | Pace | 99.421st of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 25th of 3010–21 | Road vs home | 26–73rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−49 Elo- Jordan McLaughlin left achilles tendon−3 Elo
Lakers
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–37 | 38–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–12 | 21–17 |
| Underdog | 18–25 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders | 38–28 | 31–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 2–4 LAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.