Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Aaron GordonPoints26
- Russell WestbrookAssists9
- Aaron GordonRebounds11
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints31
- Austin ReavesAssists8
- Luka DoncicRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–120
- Q41.1Dalton Knecht defensive rebound108–120
- Q45.1Jalen Pickett misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot108–120
- Q411.0Jordan Goodwin makes free throw 2 of 2108–120
- Q411.0Jordan Goodwin makes free throw 1 of 2108–119
- Q411.0PJ Hall loose ball foul108–118
- Q411.0Lakers defensive team rebound108–118
- Q411.1Hunter Tyson misses 25-foot three point jumper108–118
- Q421.0Jordan Goodwin makes free throw 2 of 2108–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:18Austin Reaves makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotDEN 0 – 9 LAL · LAL 75% → 80% +5LAL 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q17:25Aaron Gordon makes 25-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)DEN 12 – 18 LAL · DEN 20% → 25% +5DEN 20% → 25%+5 pts
- Q16:53Michael Porter Jr. makes 26-foot three point shot (Christian Braun assists)DEN 15 – 18 LAL · DEN 25% → 30% +5DEN 25% → 30%+5 pts
- Q16:29Dorian Finney-Smith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)DEN 15 – 21 LAL · LAL 70% → 75% +6LAL 70% → 75%+6 pts
- Q15:57Luka Doncic makes 30-foot three pointerDEN 16 – 24 LAL · LAL 74% → 79% +5LAL 74% → 79%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -5.5
- ML DEN +170 / LAL -210
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -5
- LAL 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- LAL: Elo 69.9%, market 64.7%
- Fair odds
- LAL -183
- DEN +183 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 109.0 – 114.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1613 | 1612 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −131 | −20 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +146 Elo | LAL 69.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 65.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 64.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30121.1 | Points scored | 113.019th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.7 | Points allowed | 111.49th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.4 | Margin | +1.613th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.0 | Offense rating | 113.312th of 30 |
| 21st of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 111.612th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.9 | Pace | 99.521st of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 4th of 3021–14 | Road vs home | 27–73rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−131 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–36 | 39–28 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–28 | 22–17 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders | 39–30 | 32–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 9–2 LAL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.
- Mar 14LAL 126 @ DEN 131Picked DEN 88%Hit
- Feb 22LAL 123 @ DEN 100Picked DEN 68%Miss
- Nov 23DEN 127 @ LAL 102Picked LAL 60%Miss
- Apr 29LAL 106 @ DEN 108PlayoffsPicked DEN 62%Hit
- Apr 27DEN 108 @ LAL 119PlayoffsPicked DEN 53%Miss
- Apr 25DEN 112 @ LAL 105PlayoffsPicked LAL 51%Miss
- Apr 22LAL 99 @ DEN 101PlayoffsPicked DEN 56%Hit
- Apr 20LAL 103 @ DEN 114PlayoffsPicked DEN 57%Hit