Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints39
- Aaron GordonAssists8
- DeAndre JordanRebounds15
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints30
- Alperen SengunAssists10
- Alperen SengunRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–111
- Q44.1Jalen Green makes 1-foot driving dunk (Steven Adams assists)116–111
- Q47.1Michael Porter Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2116–109
- Q47.1Peyton Watson enters the game for DeAndre Jordan115–109
- Q47.1Michael Porter Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2115–109
- Q47.1Steven Adams personal foul114–109
- Q49.1Michael Porter Jr. defensive rebound114–109
- Q49.1Jalen Green misses free throw 3 of 3114–109
- Q49.1Michael Porter Jr. enters the game for Peyton Watson114–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:22Dillon Brooks makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)DEN 67 – 62 HOU · HOU 40% → 50% +9HOU 40% → 50%+9 pts
- Q34:53Jamal Murray makes 24-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)DEN 78 – 70 HOU · DEN 53% → 64% +10DEN 53% → 64%+10 pts
- Q34:36Fred VanVleet makes 25-foot three pointerDEN 78 – 73 HOU · HOU 36% → 46% +10HOU 36% → 46%+10 pts
- Q34:07Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three point shot (DeAndre Jordan assists)DEN 81 – 73 HOU · DEN 54% → 65% +10DEN 54% → 65%+10 pts
- Q41:16Dillon Brooks makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)DEN 109 – 105 HOU · HOU 2% → 12% +10HOU 2% → 12%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -7.5
- ML DEN +250 / HOU -300
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -6
- HOU 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- HOU: Elo 72.0%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -263
- DEN +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 108.0 – 115.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1593 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −89 | +35 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | DEN crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +164 Elo | HOU 72.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 73.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 73.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.8 | Points scored | 113.517th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 109.05th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.9 | Margin | +4.65th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.7 | Offense rating | 112.118th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30113.9 | Defense rating | 107.62nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.8 | Pace | 100.717th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 7th of 3021–16 | Road vs home | 26–104th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−89 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–38 | 39–32 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–29 | 28–23 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 41–30 | 37–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 1–4 HOU in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.