Houston Rockets at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints26
- Alperen SengunAssists4
- Alperen SengunRebounds12
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints31
- Franz WagnerAssists7
- Franz WagnerRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–108
- Q41.1Goga Bitadze offensive rebound116–108
- Q44.1Franz Wagner misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot116–108
- Q413.1Jabari Smith Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2116–108
- Q413.1Jabari Smith Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2115–108
- Q413.1Goga Bitadze personal foul114–108
- Q414.1Tari Eason defensive goaltending violation114–108
- Q414.1Franz Wagner makes layup (Cory Joseph assists)114–108
- Q416.1Cory Joseph offensive rebound114–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:00Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)HOU 36 – 44 ORL · ORL 60% → 67% +8ORL 60% → 67%+8 pts
- Q24:35Dillon Brooks makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tari Eason assists)HOU 39 – 44 ORL · HOU 32% → 40% +8HOU 32% → 40%+8 pts
- Q20.1Fred VanVleet makes 32-foot three pointerHOU 56 – 52 ORL · HOU 56% → 64% +9HOU 56% → 64%+9 pts
- Q35:40Cory Joseph makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope assists)HOU 68 – 65 ORL · ORL 28% → 37% +9ORL 28% → 37%+9 pts
- Q35:27Jalen Green makes 28-foot three pointerHOU 71 – 65 ORL · HOU 63% → 72% +9HOU 63% → 72%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -2.5
- ML HOU -130 / ORL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -3
- HOU 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 61.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -119
- ORL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 105.5 – 103.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 208.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +7 | −13 | HOU: Missing Amen Thompson −17 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · ORL: Missing Cole Anthony −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | HOU crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +83 Elo | HOU 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 60.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30113.7 | Points scored | 104.630th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.1 | Points allowed | 106.01st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.5 | Margin | −1.418th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 106.528th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.6 | Defense rating | 108.03rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.8 | Pace | 97.828th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 8th of 3018–14 | Road vs home | 18–1617th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+7 Elo- Amen Thompson sprained left ankle−17 Elo
Magic
−13 Elo- Cole Anthony toe injury−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–31 | 34–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 27–22 | 21–17 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 13–18 |
| Overs–unders | 36–33 | 27–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 2–1 ORL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.