Philadelphia 76ers at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Quentin GrimesPoints46
- Jared ButlerAssists5
- Quentin GrimesRebounds13
Rockets- Jabari Smith Jr.Points30
- Jalen GreenAssists13
- Alperen SengunRebounds11
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game137–144
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime137–144
- OT7.2Alperen Sengun defensive rebound137–144
- OT10.0Quentin Grimes misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot137–144
- OT12.176ers Full timeout137–144
- OT12.1Aaron Holiday makes free throw 2 of 2137–144
- OT12.1Aaron Holiday makes free throw 1 of 2137–143
- OT12.1Jared Butler shooting foul137–142
- OT32.0Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound137–142
- OT34.1Quentin Grimes misses 26-foot three point jumper137–142
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:00Jae'Sean Tate makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)PHI 112 – 105 HOU · HOU 28% → 41% +13HOU 28% → 41%+13 pts
- Q48:30Jalen Green makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotPHI 114 – 108 HOU · HOU 30% → 44% +14HOU 30% → 44%+14 pts
- Q48:00Jalen Green makes 27-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)PHI 116 – 111 HOU · HOU 33% → 47% +15HOU 33% → 47%+15 pts
- Q41:56Dillon Brooks makes 26-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)PHI 125 – 121 HOU · HOU 6% → 22% +16HOU 6% → 22%+16 pts
- Q43.2Alperen Sengun makes tip shotPHI 131 – 131 HOU · HOU <1% → 52% +52HOU <1% → 52%+52 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 92%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -16.5
- ML PHI +1100 / HOU -2500
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -10.5
- HOU 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 84.4%, market 92.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -1154
- PHI +1154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 104.5 – 121.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1381 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −68 | +9 | PHI: Missing Tyrese Maxey −46 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · HOU: Missing Amen Thompson −18 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +294 Elo | HOU 84.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 85.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 85.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 92.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30109.6 | Points scored | 113.217th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.6 | Points allowed | 108.75th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.0 | Margin | +4.56th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30110.2 | Offense rating | 111.817th of 30 |
| 26th of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 107.42nd of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.8 | Pace | 100.817th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3011–22 | Road vs home | 25–104th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−68 Elo- Tyrese Maxey lower back sprain−46 Elo
Rockets
+9 Elo- Amen Thompson left ankle sprain−18 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–42 | 38–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–18 | 27–21 |
| Underdog | 19–24 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 39–28 | 35–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–1 HOU in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.