Philadelphia 76ers at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Quentin GrimesPoints28
- Jared ButlerAssists7
- Ricky Council IVRebounds10
Mavericks- P.J. WashingtonPoints29
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists7
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–125
- Q40.1Mavericks offensive team rebound130–125
- Q40.1Naji Marshall misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot130–125
- Q44.1Jalen Hood-Schifino makes free throw 2 of 2130–125
- Q44.1Jalen Hood-Schifino makes free throw 1 of 2129–125
- Q44.1Spencer Dinwiddie personal take foul128–125
- Q45.1Guerschon Yabusele defensive rebound128–125
- Q410.1Spencer Dinwiddie misses 24-foot three point shot128–125
- Q412.0Spencer Dinwiddie enters the game for Kessler Edwards128–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:35Klay Thompson makes 22-foot three point shot (P.J. Washington assists)PHI 124 – 121 DAL · DAL 5% → 22% +17DAL 5% → 22%+17 pts
- Q437.1Spencer Dinwiddie makes 2-foot two point shotPHI 124 – 123 DAL · DAL 9% → 34% +25DAL 9% → 34%+25 pts
- Q425.1Quentin Grimes makes free throw 1 of 2PHI 125 – 123 DAL · PHI 70% → 86% +16PHI 70% → 86%+16 pts
- Q414.1P.J. Washington makes layup (Klay Thompson assists)PHI 126 – 125 DAL · DAL 1% → 24% +23DAL 1% → 24%+23 pts
- Q412.0Jared Butler makes free throw 1 of 2PHI 127 – 125 DAL · PHI 78% → 94% +16PHI 78% → 94%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -6.5
- ML PHI +215 / DAL -260
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -5
- DAL 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- DAL: Elo 69.3%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- DAL -228
- PHI +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 109.0 – 115.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1370 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −79 | −85 | PHI: Missing Tyrese Maxey −46 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DAL: Missing Daniel Gafford −33, Dereck Lively II −25 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +141 Elo | DAL 69.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 62.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30109.3 | Points scored | 114.513th of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 114.918th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.1 | Margin | −0.416th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 113.113th of 30 |
| 26th of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 113.420th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.7 | Pace | 101.015th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 25th of 3010–22 | Road vs home | 19–1515th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−79 Elo- Tyrese Maxey lower back injury−46 Elo
Mavericks
−85 Elo- Daniel Gafford right knee sprain−33 Elo
- Dereck Lively II right ankle injury−25 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–42 | 33–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 6–18 | 14–15 |
| Underdog | 18–24 | 19–20 |
| Overs–unders | 38–28 | 35–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–1 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.