Houston Rockets at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Fred VanVleetPoints37
- Amen ThompsonAssists5
- Alperen SengunRebounds10
Heat- Andrew WigginsPoints30
- Bam AdebayoAssists6
- Kel'el WareRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–98
- Q42.1Bam Adebayo makes 28-foot running pullup jump shot102–98
- Q47.0Bam Adebayo defensive rebound102–95
- Q47.1Jalen Green misses two point shot102–95
- Q427.2Dillon Brooks defensive rebound102–95
- Q431.1Alperen Sengun blocks Davion Mitchell 's 22-foot three point step back jumpshot102–95
- Q441.0Dillon Brooks bad pass (Kel'el Ware steals)102–95
- Q449.1Haywood Highsmith enters the game for Andrew Wiggins102–95
- Q449.1Rockets Full timeout102–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:21Fred VanVleet makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tari Eason assists)HOU 65 – 68 MIA · HOU 38% → 48% +10HOU 38% → 48%+10 pts
- Q35:19Fred VanVleet makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotHOU 70 – 70 MIA · HOU 48% → 58% +10HOU 48% → 58%+10 pts
- Q411:25Fred VanVleet makes 28-foot three point jumper (Tari Eason assists)HOU 81 – 82 MIA · HOU 40% → 52% +13HOU 40% → 52%+13 pts
- Q49:58Fred VanVleet makes 25-foot three pointerHOU 86 – 82 MIA · HOU 60% → 73% +12HOU 60% → 73%+12 pts
- Q47:57Jabari Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Steven Adams assists)HOU 90 – 86 MIA · HOU 60% → 74% +14HOU 60% → 74%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -4.5
- ML HOU -190 / MIA +160
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -6.5
- HOU 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 74.6%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -170
- MIA +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 108.5 – 104.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 212.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1413 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +31 | −35 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Nikola Jovic −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +187 Elo | HOU 74.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 69.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 70.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30113.7 | Points scored | 109.126th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.1 | Points allowed | 110.88th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.6 | Margin | −1.719th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 110.521st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.6 | Defense rating | 112.213th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.8 | Pace | 97.430th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 7th of 3019–14 | Road vs home | 15–1822nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
−35 Elo- Nikola Jovic broken right hand−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–31 | 28–41 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–22 | 15–21 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 13–20 |
| Overs–unders | 37–33 | 36–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 0–3 MIA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.