Miami Heat at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Duncan RobinsonPoints22
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Assists7
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Rebounds11
Knicks- Mikal BridgesPoints28
- Josh HartAssists11
- Josh HartRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–116
- Q49.1shot clock turnover95–116
- Q433.1Kel'el Ware makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)95–116
- Q442.0Anton Watson makes 9-foot two point shot (Tyler Kolek assists)93–116
- Q452.1Kel'el Ware makes 1-foot dunk (Davion Mitchell assists)93–114
- Q453.1Davion Mitchell offensive rebound91–114
- Q456.1Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses driving layup91–114
- Q41:11Tyler Kolek makes 1-foot two point shot (Anton Watson assists)91–114
- Q41:26Davion Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 291–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:35Karl-Anthony Towns makes 29-foot three point shot (Josh Hart assists)MIA 31 – 25 NY · NY 46% → 53% +7NY 46% → 53%+7 pts
- Q253.1Duncan Robinson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)MIA 49 – 45 NY · MIA 38% → 46% +8MIA 38% → 46%+8 pts
- Q311:21Duncan Robinson makes 27-foot three pointerMIA 52 – 47 NY · MIA 41% → 50% +9MIA 41% → 50%+9 pts
- Q311:00OG Anunoby makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Josh Hart assists)MIA 52 – 50 NY · NY 50% → 59% +9NY 50% → 59%+9 pts
- Q310:25Miles McBride makes 24-foot three point jumper (OG Anunoby assists)MIA 52 – 53 NY · NY 59% → 67% +9NY 59% → 67%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NY -6.5
- ML MIA +225 / NY -280
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -5
- NY 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- NY: Elo 69.2%, market 70.5%
- Fair odds
- NY -239
- MIA +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 101.5 – 108.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 209.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1425 | 1579 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −31 | −57 | MIA: Missing Andrew Wiggins −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −36 | MIA crossed 1 time zone and NY crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +140 Elo | NY 69.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 66.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 70.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30109.3 | Points scored | 116.76th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.7 | Points allowed | 112.413th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +4.37th of 30 |
| 21st of 30110.6 | Offense rating | 116.95th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 112.614th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.4 | Pace | 98.826th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 20th of 3013–21 | Road vs home | 21–1111th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−31 Elo- Andrew Wiggins lower leg−3 Elo
Knicks
−57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–40 | 30–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 15–21 | 26–28 |
| Underdog | 12–19 | 4–8 |
| Overs–unders | 34–33 | 36–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 1–4 NY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.