Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints25
- Cade CunninghamAssists11
- Cade CunninghamRebounds12
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints30
- Bam AdebayoAssists8
- Kel'el WareRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–113
- Q40.0Heat offensive team rebound116–113
- Q40.1Tim Hardaway Jr. blocks Davion Mitchell's three point jumper116–113
- Q42.2Cade Cunningham makes 24-foot three point shot (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)116–113
- Q45.0Tim Hardaway Jr. enters the game for Isaiah Stewart113–113
- Q45.0Malik Beasley enters the game for Ausar Thompson113–113
- Q45.0Kel'el Ware enters the game for Tyler Herro113–113
- Q45.0Pistons Full timeout113–113
- Q45.0Tyler Herro makes free throw 2 of 2113–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:24Jalen Duren makes dunkDET 110 – 109 MIA · DET 43% → 62% +18DET 43% → 62%+18 pts
- Q41:16Tyler Herro makes 19-foot jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)DET 110 – 111 MIA · MIA 36% → 61% +25MIA 36% → 61%+25 pts
- Q456.1Cade Cunningham makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Duren assists)DET 113 – 111 MIA · DET 37% → 78% +41DET 37% → 78%+41 pts
- Q45.0Tyler Herro makes free throw 2 of 2DET 113 – 113 MIA · MIA 10% → 50% +39MIA 10% → 50%+39 pts
- Q42.2Cade Cunningham makes 24-foot three point shot (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)DET 116 – 113 MIA · DET 50% → >99% +50DET 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DET -4.5
- ML DET -170 / MIA +145
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -6
- DET 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.3 pts
- DET: Elo 72.0%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- DET -154
- MIA +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 110.5 – 106.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1416 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +51 | −43 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Andrew Wiggins −5, Nikola Jovic −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DET crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +164 Elo | DET 72.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 64.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 65.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.0 | Points scored | 109.126th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 110.88th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.3 | Margin | −1.719th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 110.421st of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 112.113th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.7 | Pace | 97.430th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 7th of 3020–15 | Road vs home | 15–1722nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
−43 Elo- Andrew Wiggins left leg injury−5 Elo
- Nikola Jovic broken right hand−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–29 | 27–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–15 | 15–21 |
| Underdog | 24–14 | 12–20 |
| Overs–unders | 34–35 | 35–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–5 MIA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.