Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Aaron GordonPoints23
- Jalen PickettAssists5
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds5
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints36
- Deni AvdijaAssists7
- Deni AvdijaRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–128
- Q416.1Dalano Banton defensive rebound109–128
- Q418.1Spencer Jones misses 11-foot two point shot109–128
- Q421.0Spencer Jones offensive rebound109–128
- Q424.0Jalen Pickett misses two point shot109–128
- Q448.1Rayan Rupert double dribble turnover109–128
- Q454.0Hunter Tyson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Pickett assists)109–128
- Q41:09Kris Murray makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bryce McGowens assists)106–128
- Q41:29Spencer Jones makes free throw 2 of 2106–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:15Christian Braun makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 78 – 78 POR · DEN 42% → 52% +11DEN 42% → 52%+11 pts
- Q32:45Matisse Thybulle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dalano Banton assists)DEN 80 – 83 POR · POR 48% → 59% +11POR 48% → 59%+11 pts
- Q332.1Dalano Banton makes 26-foot three pointerDEN 82 – 88 POR · POR 60% → 71% +11POR 60% → 71%+11 pts
- Q411:00Shaedon Sharpe makes 25-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)DEN 86 – 93 POR · POR 65% → 76% +11POR 65% → 76%+11 pts
- Q410:44Michael Porter Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)DEN 89 – 93 POR · DEN 24% → 35% +11DEN 24% → 35%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -1.5
- ML DEN -130 / POR +110
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -1.5
- DEN 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.4 pts
- DEN: Elo 43.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DEN -119
- POR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 114.5 – 113.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1606 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −86 | +39 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +43 Elo | POR 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 52.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.9 | Points scored | 110.623rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 114.016th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.2 | Margin | −3.323rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30117.8 | Offense rating | 109.423rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 112.715th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.9 | Pace | 100.618th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 5th of 3021–15 | Road vs home | 19–1616th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−86 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–37 | 40–30 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–28 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 35–25 |
| Overs–unders | 40–30 | 34–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 6–1 POR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.