Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints20
- Desmond BaneAssists4
- Desmond BaneRebounds7
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints31
- Deni AvdijaAssists8
- Deni AvdijaRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–115
- Q421.1Jay Huff makes 26-foot three point jumper (John Konchar assists)99–115
- Q428.0Jay Huff defensive rebound96–115
- Q430.0Bryce McGowens misses two point shot96–115
- Q444.1Marvin Bagley III makes 11-foot two point shot (Vince Williams Jr. assists)96–115
- Q456.2Bryce McGowens out of bounds lost ball turnover94–115
- Q456.2Bryce McGowens offensive rebound94–115
- Q459.1Kris Murray misses 24-foot three point jumper94–115
- Q41:20Justin Minaya defensive rebound94–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:51Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Vince Williams Jr. assists)MEM 37 – 44 POR · MEM 36% → 43% +7MEM 36% → 43%+7 pts
- Q29:17Shaedon Sharpe makes 26-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)MEM 39 – 47 POR · POR 53% → 60% +7POR 53% → 60%+7 pts
- Q26:47Deni Avdija makes 25-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)MEM 43 – 53 POR · POR 59% → 66% +7POR 59% → 66%+7 pts
- Q21:08Deni Avdija makes 26-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)MEM 56 – 69 POR · POR 69% → 76% +7POR 69% → 76%+7 pts
- Q33:36Santi Aldama makes 22-foot three point jumper (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)MEM 82 – 90 POR · MEM 20% → 29% +9MEM 20% → 29%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -4.5
- ML MEM -180 / POR +150
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- MEM 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.7 pts
- MEM: Elo 50.9%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- MEM -161
- POR +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 119.5 – 115.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +10 | +27 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Deandre Ayton −14 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +6 Elo | MEM 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 57.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.7 | Points scored | 110.623rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 114.216th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.9 | Margin | −3.623rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 109.424th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 112.915th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.0 | Pace | 100.618th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 9th of 3018–15 | Road vs home | 18–1617th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+27 Elo- Deandre Ayton strained left calf−14 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–32 | 39–30 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–19 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 10–13 | 34–25 |
| Overs–unders | 41–28 | 34–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 3–3 POR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.