Washington Wizards at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Alex SarrPoints20
- Bub CarringtonAssists8
- Tristan VukcevicRebounds8
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints30
- Dalano BantonAssists5
- Donovan ClinganRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–112
- Q412.1shot clock turnover97–112
- Q436.1Tristan Vukcevic lost ball turnover (Duop Reath steals)97–112
- Q452.2Tristan Vukcevic defensive rebound97–112
- Q455.1Bryce McGowens misses two point shot97–112
- Q41:15Duop Reath enters the game for Donovan Clingan97–112
- Q41:15Justin Minaya enters the game for Scoot Henderson97–112
- Q41:15Trail Blazers Full timeout97–112
- Q41:16Scoot Henderson defensive rebound97–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:37Duop Reath makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)WSH 24 – 25 POR · POR 62% → 69% +6POR 62% → 69%+6 pts
- Q27:35Shaedon Sharpe makes 26-foot three point jumper (Donovan Clingan assists)WSH 36 – 36 POR · POR 58% → 66% +7POR 58% → 66%+7 pts
- Q24:46Alex Sarr makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Gill assists)WSH 41 – 40 POR · WSH 30% → 38% +7WSH 30% → 38%+7 pts
- Q23:13Anfernee Simons makes 27-foot three point jumper (Matisse Thybulle assists)WSH 43 – 46 POR · POR 64% → 72% +7POR 64% → 72%+7 pts
- Q22:23Anfernee Simons makes 26-foot three pointerWSH 43 – 51 POR · POR 76% → 82% +6POR 76% → 82%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- POR -5.5
- ML WSH +210 / POR -250
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -4
- POR 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- POR: Elo 66.2%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- POR -221
- WSH +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 114.0 – 119.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1323 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | POR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +53 | +32 | WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Deandre Ayton −20, Robert Williams III −8 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +117 Elo | POR 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 64.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30108.9 | Points scored | 110.623rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.7 | Points allowed | 114.516th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.7 | Margin | −3.923rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30105.1 | Offense rating | 109.423rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30116.4 | Defense rating | 113.216th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.3 | Pace | 100.618th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 27th of 308–25 | Road vs home | 17–1619th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+32 Elo- Deandre Ayton left calf strain−20 Elo
- Robert Williams III left knee sprain−8 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–36 | 38–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 30–35 | 34–25 |
| Overs–unders | 33–33 | 34–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–2 POR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.