Chicago Bulls at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints37
- Josh GiddeyAssists9
- Jalen SmithRebounds9
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints28
- Russell WestbrookAssists10
- DeAndre JordanRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–119
- Q417.1Josh Giddey defensive rebound129–119
- Q421.0Jamal Murray misses 20-foot step back jumpshot129–119
- Q429.1Nikola Vucevic makes free throw 2 of 2129–119
- Q429.1Nikola Vucevic makes free throw 1 of 2128–119
- Q429.1Russell Westbrook personal take foul127–119
- Q431.1Russell Westbrook personal take foul127–119
- Q432.0Jamal Murray bad pass (Nikola Vucevic steals)127–119
- Q436.1DeAndre Jordan offensive rebound127–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:16Peyton Watson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)CHI 85 – 87 DEN · DEN 50% → 60% +11DEN 50% → 60%+11 pts
- Q331.1Peyton Watson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Zeke Nnaji assists)CHI 93 – 95 DEN · DEN 49% → 61% +12DEN 49% → 61%+12 pts
- Q49:54Coby White makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Josh Giddey assists)CHI 98 – 99 DEN · CHI 30% → 43% +13CHI 30% → 43%+13 pts
- Q48:03Dalen Terry makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kevin Huerter assists)CHI 107 – 102 DEN · CHI 58% → 72% +14CHI 58% → 72%+14 pts
- Q46:36Jalen Smith makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dalen Terry assists)CHI 112 – 103 DEN · CHI 79% → 89% +10CHI 79% → 89%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -2.5
- ML CHI +115 / DEN -140
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -0.5
- DEN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- DEN: Elo 48.4%, market 55.6%
- Fair odds
- DEN -125
- CHI +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 118.5 – 121.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1605 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +9 | −113 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHI +11 Elo | CHI 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 59.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 55.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 120.73rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.7 | Points allowed | 116.824th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.6 | Margin | +3.98th of 30 |
| 20th of 30111.7 | Offense rating | 117.83rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 114.022nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.4 | Pace | 101.76th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 11th of 3018–18 | Road vs home | 23–118th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
−113 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–33 | 34–38 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–8 | 23–29 |
| Underdog | 29–25 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 36–35 | 42–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–2 DEN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.