Chicago Bulls at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints36
- Josh GiddeyAssists17
- Nikola VucevicRebounds12
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints34
- Luka DoncicAssists6
- Luka DoncicRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game146–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter146–115
- Q423.2Shake Milton makes driving layup (Bronny James assists)146–115
- Q445.1Jevon Carter makes 12-foot two point shot (Jalen Smith assists)146–113
- Q456.1Dalton Knecht makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shake Milton assists)144–113
- Q41:08Dalen Terry makes 4-foot two point shot (Julian Phillips assists)144–110
- Q41:17Jevon Carter defensive rebound142–110
- Q41:22Bronny James misses 14-foot jumper142–110
- Q41:29Lakers offensive team rebound142–110
- Q41:29Jevon Carter blocks Bronny James 's 5-foot driving layup142–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:23Coby White makes 26-foot three point shot (Josh Giddey assists)CHI 80 – 69 LAL · CHI 52% → 61% +9CHI 52% → 61%+9 pts
- Q37:06Austin Reaves makes 28-foot three pointerCHI 82 – 74 LAL · LAL 37% → 47% +10LAL 37% → 47%+10 pts
- Q36:52Coby White makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)CHI 85 – 74 LAL · CHI 54% → 63% +10CHI 54% → 63%+10 pts
- Q34:20Luka Doncic makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotCHI 94 – 84 LAL · LAL 27% → 36% +9LAL 27% → 36%+9 pts
- Q34:09Matas Buzelis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)CHI 97 – 84 LAL · CHI 64% → 74% +9CHI 64% → 74%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -10.5
- ML CHI +425 / LAL -650
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -8
- LAL 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- LAL: Elo 77.9%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- LAL -455
- CHI +455 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 113.5 – 124.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1603 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −4 | +36 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +219 Elo | LAL 77.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 76.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 76.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 82.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30116.7 | Points scored | 112.819th of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.8 | Points allowed | 111.410th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.1 | Margin | +1.313th of 30 |
| 20th of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 113.112th of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 111.712th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.4 | Pace | 99.421st of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 11th of 3017–18 | Road vs home | 28–83rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–33 | 40–29 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–8 | 23–17 |
| Underdog | 28–25 | 17–12 |
| Overs–unders | 35–35 | 33–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–1 LAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.