Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints20
- Isaiah CollierAssists7
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds13
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints27
- Russell WestbrookAssists7
- Nikola JokicRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–129
- Q419.1Keyonte George makes free throw 2 of 293–129
- Q419.1Keyonte George makes free throw 1 of 292–129
- Q419.1Trey Alexander personal foul91–129
- Q431.0Isaiah Collier defensive rebound91–129
- Q434.1Trey Alexander misses 28-foot three point jumper91–129
- Q436.1PJ Hall offensive rebound91–129
- Q439.1Hunter Tyson misses 27-foot three point jumper91–129
- Q447.1Isaiah Collier makes free throw 2 of 291–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:39Michael Porter Jr. makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Christian Braun assists)UTAH 0 – 5 DEN · DEN 92% → 94% +2DEN 92% → 94%+2 pts
- Q27:33Brice Sensabaugh makes 22-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)UTAH 35 – 39 DEN · UTAH 6% → 9% +3UTAH 6% → 9%+3 pts
- Q27:17Johnny Juzang makes 2-foot dunk (Keyonte George assists)UTAH 37 – 39 DEN · UTAH 9% → 11% +2UTAH 9% → 11%+2 pts
- Q24:55Nikola Jokic makes tip shotUTAH 37 – 41 DEN · DEN 88% → 91% +2DEN 88% → 91%+2 pts
- Q20.0Nikola Jokic makes 62-foot three pointer (Peyton Watson assists)UTAH 47 – 57 DEN · DEN 93% → 96% +3DEN 93% → 96%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 91%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -19.5
- ML UTAH +1000 / DEN -2000
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 91%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -14.5
- DEN 91%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- DEN: Elo 90.9%, market 91.3%
- Fair odds
- DEN -1048
- UTAH +1048 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 110.0 – 129.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1340 | 1598 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −53 | +13 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +400 Elo | DEN 90.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 91.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 91.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 91.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30111.8 | Points scored | 120.83rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.1 | Points allowed | 117.025th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.2 | Margin | +3.89th of 30 |
| 24th of 30109.1 | Offense rating | 117.93rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30117.1 | Defense rating | 114.224th of 30 |
| 5th of 30101.9 | Pace | 101.76th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 28th of 307–28 | Road vs home | 24–128th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–36 | 34–40 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 23–31 |
| Underdog | 36–34 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 43–31 | 44–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 1–6 DEN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.